The US Treasury Bonds They fell slightly, following the decline in European bonds as the scaling of the conflict in the Middle East staked the fears of an interruption of the oil supply that would feed inflation.
The treasure yields rose throughout the curve and 10 years advanced up to three basic points to 4.40%. The operators reduced their betting bets of the interest rate by the Federal Reserve and now discount 48 basic cuts of cuts by the end of the year.
The movements were more pronounced in Europe, since the region is considered more vulnerable to oil prices fluctuations due to its dependence on energy imports. German yields at 10 years rose up to five basic points to 2.56%, while comparative equilibrium points recounted up to four basic points.
The operators are attentive to Tehran’s response to US attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities, which have plunged Middle East into an unknown territory. Iran could retaliate interrupting maritime traffic in the Ormuz Strait, a narrow artery through which a fifth of the world production of crude oil circulates.
“This morning we are all oil operators,” said Jordan Rochester, director of Macroeconomic Strategy for Emea de Mizuho International PLC. The increase in energy prices is a risk of “stronger inflation for central banks this summer”, He added, which could limit feat cuts.
The movements of European bonds occurred despite the fact that the data showed that the private sector of the euro zone barely grew in June. The markets reacted discounting 20 basic points of cuts by PRTE of the European Central Bank this year, which means 80% possibilities of a final reduction of a quarter quarter.
While the role of the United States as a net exporter of energy can help the US economy to be relatively more isolated from an increase in the price of oil, Uncertainty could give more justification to the attitude of waiting and see what happens from those responsible for the Federal Reserve.
The dollar was appreciated against all currencies of the group of 10, with an increase in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index of up to 0.6%.
“A new escalation of Conflict in the Middle East It is a matter of concern, ”said Richard McGuire, director of Rabobank’s interest rate strategy. Treasury bonds could“ obtain better results, since the worldless rate of the world is considered, even if American exceptionalism is clearly threatened by the Trump administration ”.
