The National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (Ungrd) declared the “state of surveillance” for the central and northern coast of the Colombian Caribbean in the face of the tropical wave associated with the disturbance (AL-98), which is likely to become a cyclone that further intensifies the rains in the region.
This declaration involves the departments of La Guajira, Magdalena, Atlántico and Bolívar. However, it recommended that the departments of Sucre, Córdoba and the Gulf of Urabá, as well as the Archipelago of San Andrés, Providencia and Santa Catalina pay attention to the climatic phenomenon that could have an influence on those territories.
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According to the analysis of the Tropical Cyclone Warning Technical Table (Mtact), currently, the tropical disturbance has a 10% probability of cyclonic formation within a period of 48 hours. However, this percentage increases considerably to 60% if the projections for the next seven days are observed.
In this sense, although, for the moment, The AL-98 disturbance does not represent a direct impact on the national territory, the authorities warned that it could generate rains of varying intensity in the eastern Caribbean region.. This situation would also extend to sectors of the maritime zone of the Colombian Caribbean, so it is considered essential to maintain attention to possible climatic variations.
The measure taken by the authorities responds to the rapid evolution of the climate phenomenon, which has additionally affected the wind and wave conditions in the Colombian Caribbean Sea. Therefore, Wind speeds exceeding 28 knots, equivalent to 51.9 kilometers per hour, and wave heights reaching up to 3 meters have been recorded.
Among the main recommendations of the Mtact, made up of maritime and climate authorities, there is the need to take extreme precautions in fishing activities and maritime movementssince the situation could worsen due to the increase in the pressure gradient that favors the development of adverse conditions at sea.
Likewise, It is essential to maintain active contingency plans and constant observation of security protocols, taking into account that the disturbance could interact with other local systems and generate abrupt variations in the regional climate.
However, the authorities specified that the monitoring of the evolution of the phenomenon that has moved through the Caribbean from the Antilles region will be constant, which is why they committed to updating their reports and recommendations to the extent that more precise information is available on the behavior of the tropical wave AL-98.
Consequently, as the phenomenon advances over the Caribbean Sea and the magnitude of the associated rains and winds becomes clearer, authorities will determine the additional actions necessary to mitigate possible risks.
Tropical wave AL-98 is an atmospheric system that is currently located east of the Lesser Antilles arc, advancing towards the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States designates it as Invest 98L and reports that it generates intense rain and gusts of wind in the Windward and Leeward Islands, known as the Lesser Antilles.
According to the North American entity, Its movement is rapid, between 32 and 40 km/h, towards the west, and although it presents unfavorable conditions for immediate cyclonic development, it could become more favorable in the last week of October and the first days of November 2025.
For this reason, active surveillance is suggested, since if the system strengthens it could cause greater rainfall, strong winds and high waves, affecting the maritime and coastal areas of the Caribbean, including areas ranging from the Antilles to the central region of the Caribbean Sea.
