The Confidence Index of Argentine Producers, measured by the Ag Barometer Austral, registered a fall again in September/October 2025. Although the decrease is not significant, it confirms the downward trend observed since the end of 2024. In turn, almost 70% of those surveyed consider that it is not a good time to invest.
According to the latest edition of the Agribusiness and Food Center of the Austral University, in the September/October measurement, confidence fell from 127 to 124 points compared to July/August, which represents a drop of 2.4%.
Although the decrease is not substantial and confidence remains at positive levels, the year-on-year comparison shows a decrease of 6% compared to September 2024.
Investment expectations in fixed assets show a reduction of 59% from the end of 2024 (64 vs. 94). The report registers a deterioration in the mood of producers to make investments in the short term.
Expectations are below 100 points, given that 68% of those surveyed consider that it is not a good time to invest, compared to 32% who maintain a favorable view.
“This downward trend began in March 2025, after Expoagro, and is associated with the deterioration of macroeconomic expectations due to the rise in interest rates, a key variable when evaluating investment projects. Doubts about the sustainability of the exchange rate policy also affect, which increase the risk of taking loans in dollars – an option that in March seemed the most attractive,” the report states.
Carlos Steigerdirector of the Ag Barometer Austral and researcher at the Center for Agribusiness and Food, warned that “this drop in investment not only affects economic activity in the short term, but also impacts the productivity and growth of the sector in the medium and long term.”
Despite the slight drop, the confidence of agricultural producers remains in positive territory. The survey, which surveyed the mood of the sector during September and October, shows that optimism is based more on expectations for the future than on the current situation, although it shows a sustained deterioration throughout 2025 compared to the previous year.
“The sector continues to show confidence in the future, but the economic slowdown and rising interest rates are affecting the perception of the present,” Steiger explained. “The electoral context also generates a certain caution in investment decisions,” he added.
In a year marked by the legislative elections on October 26, the report indicates that the Government privileged the reduction of inflation as its main electoral asset, using the maintenance of the exchange rate and fiscal balance as central tools.
However, the demand for dollars to dollarize portfolios—a common phenomenon in Argentine electoral periods—caused an “astronomical” rise in interest rates, which negatively impacted consumption and investment.
“The high rates and the slowdown in the level of activity are hitting the economy as a whole, although agriculture continues to appear as one of the most dynamic sectors,” said Steiger.
In this context, expectations for the agricultural sector remain more favorable than those for the rest of the economy.
On the other hand, they assured from the study center: “In the second half of President Milei’s mandate, structural reforms are expected aimed at reducing Argentine costs and improving competitiveness without resorting to exchange rate devaluations, the maintenance of which within the bands has been one of the main objectives of monetary and exchange rate policy.”
In livestock farming, the outlook is favorable, especially in breeding, rearing and wintering activities on pasture. It happens that the sector is going through a period of firm prices throughout the chain, driven by sustained international demand and limited domestic supply, with a reduction in beef stock that puts upward pressure on values.
89% of producers estimate that, in the next 12 months, the profitability of breeding will be good or very good, and a similar proportion projects positive margins in breeding activities.
