The beginning of the week is marked by a rebound in the price of oil, which exceeded $100 per barrel, after the president donald trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the stalemate of peace talks between the United States and Iran, which intensified geopolitical tensions.
In this context, the US dollar is listed at the start of sessions this Monday, April 13 at 59.84 Dominican pesos on average, which represents an increase of 0.54% compared to the 59.52 pesos of the previous day, according to data from Dow Jones.
During the last week, the US currency registers a decline 0.68% against the Dominican peso; However, in the annual balance, it still accumulates an increase of 1.42%.
The behavior of exchange rate It puts an end to two consecutive days with a negative trend. Meanwhile, the weekly volatility It remains clearly below the annual average of 11.39%, showing a period of lower variations than is usual in the price.
Economic outlook for 2026 in the Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic is preparing for 2026 with an encouraging economic and political outlook, according to a report from the global firm UBS Financial Services. The document highlights a acceleration of real GDP growth towards 4% in that year, driven by lower interest rates and a more favorable international environment. Political stability and pro-market policies are projected to continue supporting the country’s economic dynamism.
By 2026, UBS It anticipates that lower interest rates will release domestic demand and stimulate investment, while a more stable external environment will favor the recovery of tourism. The report considers that a targeted fiscal stimulus will contribute to strengthening the economic activity throughout the year.
On fiscal matters, the Dominican government has taken an active approach to counteract moderate growth. Congress approved a supplemental budget that raises capital spending by 0.4% of GDP by 2025, widening the global deficit to 3.5% of GDP. By 2026, the Ministry of Finance aims for a global fiscal deficit of 3.2% of GDP and a primary surplus of 0.5%.
Among the most influential factors in the evolution of the exchange rate, the monetary policy decisions of both the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic as of the United States Federal Reservethe internal demand for dollars linked to imports and the behavior of the local economy, as well as the expected global strengthening of the US dollar towards the end of 2026, within a scenario of controlled depreciation.
The Central Bank estimates that the exchange rate will reach approximately $66.35 in September 2026 and close to $69.15 a year later, anticipating a trend of continued depreciation.
The analysis highlights that the gross public debt would remain stable at around 58% of GDP for the next 12 to 18 months starting November last year, provided there are no unexpected macroeconomic events.
UBS points out that the solid surpluses from exports of services and remittances They will compensate for the deficits in the income and merchandise trade accounts, projecting that the current account deficit will be around 2-2.5% of GDP by the end of 2025 and 2026.
The foreign direct investment net is estimated at around 3.5%–4.0% of GDP, with tourism, trade, industry, energy and real estate as key areas. This investment would be enough to cover the external gap, according to data from the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic cited by UBS Financial Services.
Finally, the report provided by the financial services firm warns of risks related to adverse climate events and governance challenges, common in emerging markets, although it maintains an optimistic view regarding the economic indicators of the country by 2026.
