When will it happen?
The House of Representatives
The Australian Constitution allows the House of Representatives to operate for three years from its first meeting after a federal election. Once three years have elapsed the House expires and another federal election must be held. However, the government can dissolve the House of Representatives at any time and call an earlier election.
The election (which must be held on a Saturday) cannot be held less than 33 days after the expiry or dissolution of the House, and it cannot be held more than 68 days after the expiry or dissolution of the House.
The last general election was held on 24 November 2007 and the current House of Representatives first met on Tuesday 12 February 2008. Therefore, this House will expire on Friday 11 February 2011, and the next election for the House of Representatives must be held on or before Saturday 16 April 2011.
If a double dissolution election is not called, the most likely timing for the next Federal election is between August and October 2010. An election on or after August 2010 would allow for a concurrent half-Senate election. A November-December 2010 election would clash with the statutory requirement for a Victorian election on 27 November 2010. A January 2011 election would be in the middle of the holiday season. And a February-April 2011 election would clash with the statutory requirement for a New South Wales election on 26 March 2011.
The Senate
Unlike the House of Representatives, the Senate is an ongoing body. With the exception of double dissolution elections, half of the members of the Senate are elected every three years for a 6-year term that commences on 1 July.
Half Senate elections are held in the year prior to the 1 July commencement date. The earliest an election can occur is 33 days after the issuing of writs on 1 July for an election. Because it takes time to count the results, the latest an election can be held is late May.
The half Senate election for the term commencing on 1 July 2008 was held on 24 November 2007. The half Senate election for the term commencing on 1 July 2011 must occur on a Saturday between 7 August 2010 and 28 May 2011. If there is a House of Representatives election during this period, the two elections will be held concurrently. However, if the current House of Representatives goes to the polls before 7 August 2010, a separate half Senate election will be necessary.
A double dissolution
If there is a legislative deadlock between the House of Representatives and the Senate, the Australian Constitution allows for both houses to be dissolved and an election to be called. However, a double dissolution cannot be called within six months of the expiry of the House.
The last day on which a double dissolution could be initiated is Thursday 11 August 2010 (6 months before the expiry of the House). The double dissolution election must be held no less than 33 days and no more than 68 after it has been called.
Because the Government does not command a majority in the Senate, a double dissolution election is a distinct possibility.