When will it happen?

The House of Representatives

The Australian Constitution allows the House of Representatives to operate for three years from its first meeting after a federal election. Once three years have elapsed the House expires and another federal election must be held. However, the government can dissolve the House of Representatives at any time and call an earlier election.

The election (which must be held on a Saturday) cannot be held less than 33 days after the expiry or dissolution of the House, and it cannot be held more than 68 days after the expiry or dissolution of the House.

The last general election was held on 9 October 2004 and the current House of Representatives first met on Tuesday 16 November 2004. Therefore, this House will expire on Thursday 15 November 2007, and the next election for the House of Representatives must be held on or before Saturday 19 January 2008.

Possible election dates (as at 1 July)

On Sunday 1 July 2007 I looked at the possible election dates between then and 19 January 2008. My assessment was that am election in remainder of August was unlikely, primary because the opinion polls were not favourable.

The APEC Leaders Forum on 2-9 September, and the possibility that APEC Leaders will address the Australian Parliament in the sitting week of 10-13 September, pretty well ruled out an election from 1 September to 13 October 2007.

An election after 15 December 2007 is unlikely because of school holidays, the Christmas break, and the length of he campaign.

My tip is that the 2007 election will be held in the eight week window between 20 October 2007 and 8 December 2007.

Election day Last day on which writs can be issued Notes
4-Aug-2007 2-Jul-2007 While a few hours remain in which a 4 August 2007 election could be called, there have been no foreshadowing announcement beforehand. Hence it is unlikely.
11-Aug-2007 9-Jul-2007
18-Aug-2007 16-Jul-2007
25-Aug-2007 23-Jul-2007
1-Sep-2007 30-Jul-2007 Election outcome may not be resolved for APEC Leaders Week (2-9 September)
8-Sep-2007 6-Aug-2007 Election period includes APEC Leaders Week (2-9 September); School holidays Tas
15-Sep-2007 13-Aug-2007 Election period includes APEC Leaders Week (2-9 September); School holidays Tas; Leaders likely to address Parliament this week ending 15 September.
22-Sep-2007 20-Aug-2007 Election period includes APEC Leaders Week (2-9 September); School holidays Qld-Tas-Vic; This election date would prevent International leaders addressing Parliament after the APEC Leaders Week. Under the Caretaker Conventions, the Opposition pre-election consultation (with Departmental officers) peiod commences on 15 August
29-Sep-2007 27-Aug-2007 Election period includes APEC Leaders Week (2-9 September); AFL and NRL Grand Final weekend; School holidays ACT-NSW-NT-Qld-SA-Vic; This election date would prevent International leaders addressing Parliament after the APEC Leaders Week; Long weekend
6-Oct-2007 3-Sep-2007 Election period includes APEC Leaders Week (2-9 September); School holidays ACT-NSW-NT-Qld-SA-Vic; This election date would prevent International leaders addressing Parliament after the APEC Leaders Week
13-Oct-2007 10-Sep-2007 School holidays ACT-NSW-SA; This election date would prevent International leaders addressing Parliament after the APEC Leaders Week
20-Oct-2007 17-Sep-2007
27-Oct-2007 24-Sep-2007
3-Nov-2007 1-Oct-2007
10-Nov-2007 8-Oct-2007
17-Nov-2007 15-Oct-2007
24-Nov-2007 22-Oct-2007
1-Dec-2007 29-Oct-2007
8-Dec-2007 5-Nov-2007
15-Dec-2007 12-Nov-2007 School holidays NT-Qld-SA-WA; Senate count likely to extend past Christmas
22-Dec-2007 19-Nov-2007 Unlikely election date, the latest an election has been held in December is 19 December in 1931; School holidays; Parliament expires Thursday 15 November 2007; five week campaign
29-Dec-2007 26-Nov-2007 Election period includes Christmas; School holidays; Six week campaign from the expiry of the House
5-Jan-2008 26-Nov-2007 Election period includes Christmas; School holidays; Seven week campaign from the expiry of the House
12-Jan-2008 26-Nov-2007 Election period includes Christmas; School holidays; Eight week campaign from the expiry of the House
19-Jan-2008 26-Nov-2007 Election period includes Christmas; School holidays; Nine week campaign from the expiry of the House

Update: On 14 October, the Prime Minister announced the election would be held on 24 November 2007.

The Senate

Unlike the House of Representatives, the Senate is an ongoing body. With the exception of double dissolution elections, half of the members of the Senate are elected every three years for a 6-year term that commences on 1 July.

Half Senate elections are held in the year prior to the 1 July commencement date. The earliest an election can occur is 33 days after the issuing of writs on 1 July for an election. Because it takes time to count the results, the latest an election can be held is late May.

The half Senate election for the term commencing on 1 July 2005 was held on 9 October 2004. The half Senate election for the term commencing on 1 July 2008 must occur on a Saturday between 4 August 2007 and 31 May 2008. If there is a House of Representatives election during this period, the two elections will be held concurrently. However, if the current House of Representatives goes to the polls before 4 August 2007, a separate half Senate election will be necessary.

A double dissolution

If there is a legislative deadlock between the House of Representatives and the Senate, the Australian Constitution allows for both houses to be dissolved and an election to be called. However, a double dissolution cannot be called within six months of the expiry of the House.

The last day this could be initiated is Tuesday 15 May 2007 (6 months before the expiry of the House). The double dissolution election must be held no less than 33 days and no more than 68 after it has been called.

As the Government has a majority in the post July 2005 Senate, a double dissolution is highly unlikely.

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