Oz Politics

Index

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Results 1949-2004 | TPP
Coalition | Labor | Greens | Minor
Attitudinal | Chicken entrails | 1996 v 2007
Monthly aggregated | Trend analysis

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Election results 1949-2004

To provide a context for the following graphs, it is worth recapping the national two party preferred (TPP) votes from Federal elections since 1949.

Two party preferred polling

Note: The Labor two-party preferred vote estimate is the mirror image of the Coalition estimate reflected around the 50th percentile.

In 2005, 2006 and early 2007, Newspoll distributed preferences according to the pattern in the 2004 election. In previous years Newspoll has only surveyed preferences in the months leading up to the election.

Morgan publishes two, two-party preferred vote estimates. One is based on the preference distributions according to how survey respondents say they will vote. The other is based on the distribution of preferences from the 2004 election. To enable direct comparison with Newspoll, the above graphs uses the Morgan population estimate based on the distribution of preferences from the 2004 election. Both Morgan estimates are graphed below.

ACNielsen only publishes a single two-party preferred vote estimate based on how survey respondents say they will vote. This is the series used in the above graph. I have calculated a second series based on the distribution of preferences from the 2004 election (see below).

Note: Morgan publishes two, two-party preferred vote populations estimates. One is based on the preference distributions by how survey respondents say they will vote. The other is based on the distribution of preferences from the 2004 election.

Note: ACNielsen only publishes a two-party preferred vote population estimate based on how survey respondents say they will vote. I have calculated a second series based on the distribution of preferences from the 2004 election.

Primary vote polling

Note: I have indicated the 42 per cent line on this chart. My rule of thumb is that the Coalition needs to get above 42 per cent to be electorally competitive.

Note: I have indicated the 40 per cent line on this chart. My rule of thumb is that Labor needs more than 40 per cent of the primary vote to be electorally competitive.

Attitudinal polling

Newspoll

ACNielsen

Morgan

Chicken entrails analysis

This next set of graphs is highly speculative. They are designed to test whether, just as in 2001 and 2004, the Coalition will come from behind to win the election.

Newspoll 1996 compared with 2007

Note: the following graphs assume the election will be on 24 November 2007. I will change the graphs when the election date is announced.

Aggregated polling

The following charts take each of the polls published in a month (ACNielsen, Galaxy, Morgan and Newspoll) and aggregates those polls into a single weighted monthly sample.

Note: The Labor two-party preferred (TPP) population estimate is the mirror image of the Coalition estimate reflected around the 50th percentile.

Trend analysis

Every time a poll is published (typically weekly) I take the simple average of the last poll from each pollster (Morgan, Newspoll and ACNielsen). I do not weight the average for differences in sample size. To that rolling average I then apply a 13 term Henderson moving average to smooth out the lumps and bumps and get to the underlying trend.

The first three graphs are of the weekly averages.

The next set of graphs depict the underlying trends, as revealed by the 13 term Henderson moving average.

Want to find out more?

• Opinion polls: Roy Morgan Research, Newspoll, A C Nielsen, and Galaxy
• The Parliamentary Library’s Research Note no. 5 2006-07 Preference flows at the 2004 House of Representatives election
• The Parliamentary Library’s Research Paper no.13 2003-04: Less tax or more social spending: twenty years of opinion polling
• The Parliamentary Library’s Research Note no. 25 2003-04: Opinion Poll Report: Comparison of Voting Intentions as at 1 December 2003
• The Parliamentary Library’s Research Note no. 24 2003-04: Opinion Polls: Important Issues and Preferred Party
• Parliamentary Library Research Note 43 1995-96 The Political Significance of Opinion Polls
• Henderson moving averages
• Antony Green’s ABC election site
• Peter Brent’s Mumble election site
• Adam Carr’s Psephos election site
• William Bowe’s The Poll Bludger
• Possums Pollytics