Election calculator
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How it works
The election calculator takes your prediction for the likely national two-party preferred (TPP) vote, compares it with the vote at the last election and calculates a notional uniform swing. It then applies that notional swing to the Mackerras electoral pendulum (using AEC data from here), in order to make a prediction on the number of seats a party will win in the next Federal election.
While the calculator cannot accurately predict which seats the parties will win (as TPP swings at elections are never uniform) it can predict the likely seat totals for each party.
The calculator can do this because the swings for each seat are likely to be normally distributed around the average national swing. The number of over-swings (relative to the national average) is likely to be similar to the number of under-swings. These over and under swings should cancel each other out, giving a relatively good prediction of the total number of seats a party would win should it achieve a particular national average TPP vote share.
Although there is the option to check a box to see individual seat predictions, these predictions are not reliable. Particular caution should be exercised if the projected margin is under four per cent.