The State of the House

8 seats to defeat: 13 seats to victory

“If we lose eight seats at the next federal election we are gone, we are out of business and the Labor Party is the government not only in the eight states and territories but also at a national level.”

John Howard, September 2003

The House of Representatives notionally has 83 Coalition held seats. Labor has 63 members, the Greens 1 and the independents 3 for a total of 150 members. These are notional seats because there have been changes to electoral boundaries in Queensland, Victoria and South Australia since the 2001 Federal election.

Going into the 2004 election, the Coalition has a notional majority of 15 seats over all other parties in the House of Representatives. The Coalition would lose its absolute majority if 8 seats were lost at the next election. Labor needs to win 13 seats for an absolute majority. If the result falls in-between, we may have a minority government that depends on the support of some independents and/or a minor party to govern.

The pendulum

The following is a linear presentation of the current election pendulum. The seats are ranked from the safest government seat to the safest non-government seat.

Safer government seats

Murray (Vic)            21.9%
Mitchell (NSW)          21.3%
Bradfield (NSW)         21.2%
Mallee (Vic)            20.9%
Riverina (NSW)          19.9%
O'Connor (WA)           19.1%
Mackellar (NSW)         16.9%
Barker (SA)             16.6%
Farrer (NSW)            16.4%
Moncrieff (Qld)         16.3%
Berowra (NSW)           15.6%
Maranoa (Qld)           15.4%
Groom (Qld)             15.1%
Gwydir (NSW)            14.9%
Gilmore (NSW)           14.6%
Mayo (SA)               14.3%
Cook (NSW)              14.0%
Curtin (WA)             13.9%
North Sydney (NSW)      13.2%
Fadden (Qld)            13.1%
Warringah (NSW)         12.7%
McPherson (Qld)         12.2%
Fisher (Qld)            11.8%
Lyne (NSW)              11.2%
Kooyong (Vic)           10.9%
Indi (Vic)              10.7%
Grey (SA)               10.6%
Hughes (NSW)            10.4%
Wide Bay (Qld)          9.9%
Hume (NSW)              9.8%
Ryan (Qld)              9.5%
Goldstein (Vic)         9.5%
Fairfax (Qld)           9.2%
Wannon (Vic)            9.2%
Menzies (Vic)           8.9%
Parkes (NSW)            8.7%
Macquarie (NSW)         8.7%
Sturt (SA)              8.5%
Higgins (Vic)           8.4%
Dawson (Qld)            8.0%
Tangney (WA)            8.0%
Wentworth (NSW)         7.9%
Bennelong (NSW)         7.7%
Forrest (WA)            7.6%
Flinders (Vic)          7.4%
Boothby (SA)            7.4%
Casey (Vic)             7.2%
Forde (Qld)             7.0%
Robertson (NSW)         7.0%
Macarthur (NSW)         7.0%
Pearce (WA)             6.9%
Blair (Qld)             6.6%
Leichhardt (Qld)        6.4%
Moore (WA)              6.0%
Aston (Vic)             6.0%
Dickson (Qld)           6.0%
Lindsay (NSW)           5.5%
Corangamite (Vic)       5.4%
Dunkley (Vic)           5.2%

The marginal government seats

Labor must win 13 seats for a change of government. If this happens, those seats are most likely to come from here on the pendulum. These are the seats to watch!

Cowper (NSW)            4.7%
Kalgoorlie (WA)         4.3%
Makin (SA)              3.7%
La Trobe (Vic)          3.7%
Petrie (Qld)            3.5%
Bowman (Qld)            3.1%
McMillan (Vic)          2.9%
Page (NSW)              2.8%
Gippsland (Vic)         2.6%
Moreton (Qld)           2.6%
Longman (Qld)           2.5%    

---------------------------- Swing needed for a Labor Victory

McEwen (Vic)            2.2%
Hinkler (Qld)           2.2%
Eden-Monaro (NSW)       1.7%
Richmond (NSW)          1.7%
Deakin (Vic)            1.6%

---------------------------- Swing needed for a Coalition loss

Herbert (Qld)           1.5%
Paterson (NSW)          1.4%
Parramatta (NSW)        1.2%
Hindmarsh (SA)          1.0%
Adelaide (SA)           0.6%
Canning (WA)            0.4%
Dobell (NSW)            0.4%
Solomon (NT)            0.1%

The marginal non-government seats

With the exception of Cunningham, Labor must also protect its most vuneralble seats here. Labor would be seeking to regain Cunningham, which it lost to the Greens in a byelection in October 2002. These are also seats to watch!

Brisbane (Qld)          1.0%
Kingston (SA)           1.3%
Wakefield (SA)          1.3%
Stirling (WA)           1.6%
Hasluck (WA)            1.8%
Bonner (Qld)            1.9%
Swan (WA)               2.0%
Bass (Tas)              2.1%
Cunningham (NSW)        2.2%
Rankin (Qld)            2.4%
Chisholm (Vic)          2.7%
Banks (NSW)             2.9%
Greenway (NSW)          3.1%
Ballarat (Vic)          3.2%
Bendigo (Vic)           3.6%
Lowe (NSW)              3.8%
Lilley (Qld)            4.6%

Safer non-government seats

Note: Calare, Kennedy and New England are held by Independents.

Lingiari (NT)           5.3%
Jagajaga (Vic)          5.3%
Cowan (WA)              5.5%
Capricornia (Qld)       5.5%
Melbourne Ports (Vic)   5.7%
Barton (NSW)            6.0%
Braddon (Tas)           6.0%
Griffith (Qld)          6.2%
Bruce (Vic)             6.5%
Isaacs (Vic)            6.6%
Charlton (NSW)          6.7%
Newcastle (NSW)         6.9%
Holt (Vic)              7.9%
Franklin (Tas)          8.0%
Oxley (Qld)             8.0%
Lyons (Tas)             8.2%
New England (NSW)       8.3%
Corio (Vic)             8.5%
Werriwa (NSW)           8.5%
Shortland (NSW)         8.8%
Kingsford Smith (NSW)   8.9%
Canberra (ACT)          9.4%
Brand (WA)              10.0%
Fremantle (WA)          10.7%
Hunter (NSW)            10.9%
Hotham (Vic)            11.0%
Perth (WA)              11.2%
Lalor (Vic)             12.1%
Fraser (ACT)            12.7%
Prospect (NSW)          12.8%
Kennedy (Qld)           14.1%
Denison (Tas)           14.3%
Sydney (NSW)            15.0%
Throsby (NSW)           15.1%
Calwell (Vic)           15.1%
Blaxland (NSW)          15.2%
Chifley (NSW)           15.3%
Maribyrnong (Vic)       15.4%
Port Adelaide (SA)      16.0%
Reid (NSW)              16.9%
Watson (NSW)            17.3%
Melbourne (Vic)         19.9%
Gorton (Vic)            20.2%
Scullin (Vic)           20.3%
Gellibrand (Vic)        20.4%
Wills (Vic)             20.6%
Grayndler (NSW)         21.3%
Fowler (NSW)            21.5%
Calare (NSW)            25.0%
Batman (Vic)            25.1%

Notes

The above seats have been identified from the electoral pendulum in the Parliamentary Library Research Note no. 35 2003-04. It foreshadowed that the Parliament would overturn the Australian Electoral Commission decision to reduce the number of seats in the Northern Territory from two to one. This was confirmed when the Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Representation in the House of Representatives) Act 2004 received Royal Assent on 20 April 2004.

Want to find out more?