The Senate


A difficult challenge for Labor

The current make up of the Senate strongly favours the Coalition parties over the Australian Labor Party at the next half Senate election.

While both the Coalition and Labor have a similar number of senators retiring at the conclusion of the current half Senate term, the Coalition has 6 more senators continuing until 30 June 2008.

This “head start” for the Coalition explains why the government did not call a double dissolution election. The Coalition was unlikely to get better results in a double dissolution election, and a double dissolution would favour the smaller parties (because of the smaller quota necessary to win a seat).

Tables setting out the current state of the Senate follow.

Senators retiring on 30 June 2005

Coal’n Labor Grns Dems PHON Ind’s Total
NSW 2 3 0 1 0 0 6
Qld 2 2 0 1 1 0 6
SA 3 2 0 0 0 1 6
Tas 2 2 0 0 0 2 6
Vic 3 3 0 0 0 0 6
WA 3 2 0 1 0 0 6
Total 15 14 0 3 1 3 36
Percent 41.7 38.9 0.0 8.3 2.8 8.3 100.0

Senators retiring on 30 June 2008

Coal’n Labor Grns Dems PHON Ind’s Total
NSW 3 2 1 0 0 0 6
Qld 3 2 0 1 0 0 6
SA 3 2 0 1 0 0 6
Tas 3 2 1 0 0 0 6
Vic 3 2 0 1 0 0 6
WA 3 2 0 1 0 0 6
Total 18 12 2 4 0 0 36
Percent 50.0 33.3 5.6 11.1 0.0 0.0 100.0

Senators retiring next House of Representatives election

Coal’n Labor Grns Dems PHON Ind’s Total
ACT 1 1 0 0 0 0 2
NT 1 1 0 0 0 0 2
Total 2 2 0 0 0 0 4
Percent 50.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Predictions

Assumptions

In developing a predication for the next half Senate election, I have made some assumptions:

  1. The ACT and NT will each return one Coalition and one Labor senator. (Although the Greens have a good chance at the second ACT seat).
  2. Ex-Democrat Meg Lees (SA) is unlikely to be re-elected.
  3. Tasmanian Shayne Murphy (elected as Labor but now independent) will not be re-elected.
  4. Len Harris (Qld) will not be re-elected and this will see the end of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party in the Australian Parliament.
  5. Long standing independent Senator Brian Harradine (Tas) is retiring. The Greens are favoured to take this seat.
  6. Short of a miracle, the Australian Democrats are unlikely to win any Senate seats this election. To be fair, with Natasha Stott Despoja’s help, a South Australian miracle is not impossible. I would put the retiring senators - Ridgeway (NSW), Cherry (Qld), and Greig (WA) - at longer odds of re-election. Without a miracle, the Democrat numbers in the Senate will fall from 7 to 4 from 1 July 2005.
  7. The Australian Greens are likely to pick up the sixth seat in 3 to 6 states. Unless there is a substantial swing against the Coalition, in the majority of cases these seats will be at the expense of Labor winning the sixth seat.
  8. Fred Nile (Christian Democratic Party) will fail in his bid for a NSW Senate seat. To get a quota for the NSW Legislative Council, Mr Nile needed 4.5 per cent of the state vote. For a quota in a half Senate election, Mr Nile needs 14.3 per cent of the vote. On primary votes, the Christian Democratic Party did not make a full quota for the Legislative Council in 1999 or 2003, and only got a quota on preferences. With the significantly larger quota for the Senate, the CDP is unlikely to make the cut.
  9. The Channel 7 Sunrise program’s Vote for Me candidates are unlikely to be elected. Although of the six finalists, I think Hetty Johnston has the best chance.

The predictions: a Coalition win

If the Coalition gets the majority of the two-party preferred vote in the House of Representatives, I would expect a Senate outcome post 1 July 2005 along the following lines (plus or minus two for the Coalition, Labor and the Greens):

Coal’n Labor Grns Dems PHON Ind’s Total
Senators 37 29 6 4 0 0 76
Percent 48.7 38.2 7.9 5.3 0.0 0.0 100.0

If the Coalition performs exceedingly well at the next election, there is a very slim chance it may have a majority of votes in the Senate from 1 July 2005. This would be an unusual outcome. For 38 of the last 43 years, the government of the day has not had a majority in the Senate.

More likely than not, the Coalition will hold 38 (ie. half) or fewer senate seats. Under the terms of section 23 of the Australian Constitution, a Coalition government with 38 or fewer senators would need the support of some non-government senators to pass its legislation.

“23. Questions arising in the Senate shall be determined by a majority of votes, and each senator shall have one vote. The President shall in all cases be entitled to a vote; and when the votes are equal the question shall pass in the negative.” (Australian Constitution)

If a Coalition government is the result of the next election, neither the Democrats nor the Greens are likely to have absolute control on the balance of power in the Senate. A Coalition government would be able to approach either party in order to get its legislation through.

The predictions: a Labor win

If Labor gets the majority of the two-party preferred vote in the House of Representatives, I would expect a Senate outcome post 1 July 2005 along the following lines (plus or minus two for the Coalition, Labor and the Greens):

Coal’n Labor Grns Dems PHON Ind’s Total
Senators 34 31 7 4 0 0 76
Percent 44.7 40.8 9.2 5.3 0.0 0.0 100.0

If a Labor government eventuates, it is likely to require the support of a significant number of non-government senators to pass its legislation.

If a Labor government is the outcome at the next election, the Greens may hold the balance of power in the Senate in its own right. If the Greens do not get the balance of power, a Labor government would need to secure the support of both minor parties in order to get its legislation through.

Conclusion

A Labor Government would face a very difficult Senate: every legislative proposal would require the support of the Greens or the Opposition. In all likelihood, it will require the support of both the Greens and the Australian Democrats. A Liberal Government would face a less difficult Senate. While it would not have a majority in the Senate, it would only need the support of Australian Democrats to get its legislation passed. The Australian Democrats are far more flexible than the Greens when it comes to negotiating the passage of legislation.

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