Oz Politics

Electoral demography

Bryan — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 21:25:48 +0000

I received a nice email from the ABS …

I draw your attention to yesterday’s release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics of Australian Demographic Statistics, June Quarter 2008 (cat. no. 3101.0) and specifically the section at the end of the Main Features on Statistics for Parliamentary Representation.

The release can be found on the ABS website via this link: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument

The relevant section is on page 10 of the PDF file of the publication, or at the end of the “Summary Commentary” page on the website.

This updates information published in Information Paper: Determining Seats in the House of Representatives - Legislative Requirements for Provision of ABS Statistics, Australia, 2005 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.002).

Sometime today I will do the math to see if and where we might be losing or gaining seats for the next election.

Update: Antony has done the hard work for me …

New South Wales - 48 seats, down from the current 49

Victoria - 37 seats, unchanged

Queensland - 30 seats, up one from current 29

Western Australia - 15 seats, unchanged

South Australia - 11 seats, unchanged

Tasmania - 5 seats unchanged.

ACT - 2 seats, unchanged

NT - 2 seats, unchanged

ACNielsen and Galaxy: 55 to 45 in Labor’s favour

Bryan — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 20:10:14 +0000

Galaxy: here and here.

ACNielsen: here and here.

Graphs here.

Morgan: 58.5 to 41.5 in Labor’s favour

Bryan — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 21:57:34 +0000

Report here.

Graphs here.

Newspoll: 55 to 45 in Labor’s favour

Bryan — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 19:35:59 +0000

Data here

Report here

Graphs here

Morgan: 56.5 to 43.5 in Labor’s favour

Bryan — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 10:36:32 +0000

Report here.

Graphs here.

Newspoll: 54 to 46 in Labor’s favour

Bryan — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 20:27:48 +0000

Today’s Australian reported on the latest Newspoll. There are a couple of interesting features worth noting. First, like the recent Nielsen poll, the attitudinals have really bounced for the Prime Minister on the back of his handling of the global financial crisis.

Second, unlike the recent Nielsen poll which translated the attitudinal bounce into a voting bounce, the Labor vote under Newspoll is continuing its slow slide. But Labor voters need not worry too much. While no longer stratospheric, Newspoll has Labor in a commanding position.

The usual graphs can be found here.

CPI

Bryan — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 07:28:00 +0000

The state of the economy plays a critical role in forming voter preferences. Earlier this week the ABS released its Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) statistics for the September quarter 2008. Inflation is one of the key variables in the Sawford formula, which is used by some psephologists to predict election outcomes.

The Producer Price Inflation (PPI) statistics for the September quarter, also released by the ABS this week, were the highest since the series commenced in 1998. The PPI at the final stage of production jumped by 2.0 per cent in the September quarter for an annual rate of 5.6 per cent. The PPI is used by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to monitor upstream inflationary pressures. These PPI figures suggest the CPI figures for the December quarter will also be high.

Statistics on the Australian economy can be sourced easily from the RBA’s statistics page.