According to the SMH …
Peter Costello today said he would not “would not seek nor accept” a nomination to be the new opposition leader.
He said he would stay in his seat of Higgins, in Victoria, and “mentor” young talent within the party.
Last night’s election ran largely as predicted. Australia has a new Government. Labor won, with an interim national two-party preferred vote share of 53.41 per cent.
There was a narrowing in the polls in the last week that appears to have carried through to the final result. I was predicting 6.7 per cent swing before the late polls last week suggested a narrowing; the result at the end of the night was 6.15 per cent. My guess of 88 seats for Labor was two up on the ABC’s predicted 86 seats at the end of counting last night.
The latest poll from Morgan (phone — 53.5 per cent) was the closest to picking the final result. Newspoll and Galaxy (at 52 per cent) were a little conservative. ACNielsen at 57 per cent had a bad hair day.
The ABC gave a fantastic election night coverage. Well done Antony!
Key government casualties include Mal Brough (Minister for Indigenous Affairs), and in all likelihood the Prime Minister, John Howard. The Special Minister of State, Gary Nairn, has lost his bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro.
Malcolm Turnbull won his seat of Wentworth.
Don’t forget to vote today.
Election tipping: The election tipping competition will close at 4pm today.
Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor’s favour. Commentary from Dennis Shanahan.
Morgan: 54.5 to 45.5 on 21-22 November 2007 (phone poll of 1648 voters). 53.5 to 46.5 on 23 November (phone poll of 2115 voters).
The trends are interesting. ACNielsen is trending away from the Coalition. Morgan face to face is a flat line. And Morgan phone, Newspoll and Galaxy are all trending to the Coalition. (ACNielsen was trending towards the Coalition prior to this week’s 57 to 43 poll result).
You may need to hit the refresh button on your browser to see the latest charts.
Apology: but I must be at work early this morning, so you will have to wait until this evening for a full report.
Conflicted polls: two polls out last night tell a very different story. Galaxy, has the Coalition in line for a two seat majority, despite losing the two-party preferred vote 52 to 48 in Labor’s favour. ACNielsen, predicts annihilation for Howard with a two-party preferred vote of 57 to 43 in Labor’s favour if preferences are allocated according to what people reported or 56 to 44 if votes are allocated using preference flows from 2004.
I have not updated the other graphs. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest charts.
Yesterday, Labor released policies on the aged care workforce; disability funding; Kempsey hospital, GP super clinics for Mt Isa and the Riverina; and health clinics for defence families in Cairns, RAAF Edinburgh and Elizabeth North, and RAAF Amberley; and water recycling at Croydon Leisure Centre.
The Coalition released new policies on fiscal policy, hoons, vandals and violence and the NT.
Ouch: Coalition supporters have been caught handing out fake letters linking Labor to terrorists (DT, the Age).
Newspoll cumulative: The Australian has released another slice and dice of cumulative Newspolls by state, age, gender and rurality. Read Simon Jackman’s analysis.
Getup Senate poll: According to the Daily Telegraph, Getup has comissioned a Senate poll from Galaxy. The key message is that Green support is up to 13 per cent.
Razor gang: Expect a significant pruning for the public service should Rudd win the election (The Oz, SMH, CM).
Predictions: Professor Brian Costar believes Labor will win about 36 additional seats to give it 96 House of Representatives members.
Betting market: Portlandbet has opened a book on the exact number of seats Labor will win. The current odds are a little odd. The favourite is a Labor loss. The next favourite is a Labor win with 83 seats. The vigorish for this market was a little high for my liking (181 per cent).
| Total Labor seats | Odds | Probability |
| 73 or less | $4.25 | 12.9% |
| 74 | $67.00 | 0.8% |
| 75 | $41.00 | 1.3% |
| 76 | $29.00 | 1.9% |
| 77 | $19.00 | 2.9% |
| 78 | $16.00 | 3.4% |
| 79 | $15.00 | 3.7% |
| 80 | $11.00 | 5.0% |
| 81 | $9.00 | 6.1% |
| 82 | $8.50 | 6.5% |
| 83 | $8.00 | 6.9% |
| 84 | $8.50 | 6.5% |
| 85 | $9.00 | 6.1% |
| 86 | $9.00 | 6.1% |
| 87 | $11.00 | 5.0% |
| 88 | $12.00 | 4.6% |
| 89 | $13.00 | 4.2% |
| 90 | $15.00 | 3.7% |
| 91 | $17.00 | 3.2% |
| 92 | $26.00 | 2.1% |
| 93 | $41.00 | 1.3% |
| 94 | $51.00 | 1.1% |
| 95 | $67.00 | 0.8% |
| 96 | $81.00 | 0.7% |
| 97 | $81.00 | 0.7% |
| 98 | $101.00 | 0.5% |
| 99 | $101.00 | 0.5% |
| 100 or more | $41.00 | 1.3% |
Sportingbet has opened a book on Labor’s two-party preferred vote share. The favourtite with this book is 53 to 54 per cent. Using Antony’s calculator, this equates to something like 82 to 87 seats.
| Percentage Labor TPP vote share | Odds | Probability | Implied seats (from AG) |
| Less than 48% | $26.00 | 2.8% | 63 or less |
| 48% to 49.99% | $13.00 | 5.6% | 63-71 |
| 50% to 51.99% | $4.40 | 16.4% | 71-76 |
| 52% to 52.99% | $3.75 | 19.2% | 76-82 |
| 53% to 53.99% | $2.50 | 28.9% | 82-87 |
| 54% to 55.99% | $3.50 | 20.6% | 87-96 |
| 56% or more | $11.00 | 6.6% | 96 or more |