Oz Politics Blog

In addition to Labor’s 80 seats, Flynn and Robertson still look safely in Labor’s grip.

Labor has imporved its position Bowman, up from 166 votes yesterday to 155 today.

Solomon is now Labor ahead by 142 votes (down from 262 yesterday). Could still end up with the Coalition ahead.

McEwan is Coalition ahead by 142 votes. But the first lot of absentee votes have gone Labor’s way 61 to 39. This seat could still go Labor.

Herbert has gone from the Coalition ahead by 60 votes yeterday to the Coalition ahead by 139 today.

In Swan, the Coalition is ahead by 34 votes. Yesterday the Coalition was ahead by 239 votes. Tough call.

In Dickson, the Coalition is ahead by 188 votes. This seat is largely counted, so it should stay with the Coalition.

In La Trobe, the Coalition is ahead by 896 votes.

Synopsis: 80 plus Flynn, Robertson and Bowman is 83. Let’s assume Laboir gets one of Solomon and McEwan, we get Labor at 84 seats. And then there is a possibility in Swan. So this morning it is looking more like 85 seats, but in the range 84 to 86 seats.

Of the doubtful seats on the ABC and AEC computers, Labor is ahead in four seats: Bowman (by 116 votes), Robertson (by 273 votes), Solomon (by 262 votes) and Flynn (by 635 votes).

Solomon could still go to the Coalition. If the remaining 1883 postal votes break 59-41 like the postals already counted, that would give the Coalition 338 votes. Similarly with the remaining pre-poll votes, if they break 53-47, the Coalition would pick up a further 147 votes.

There are fewer uncounted votes in Robertson. And if they break in the Coalition’s favour at the same rate as the votes already counted, then Labor should win this seat.

In Bowman, the postals and absentee votes have gone Labor’s way. Still, there are 2525 pre-poll votes to count. If these break 53-47, the Coalition will pick up 151 votes. If the remaining absentee votes go in the same way as those already counted, the Coalition’s haul will be whittled down by 64 votes. And the remaining postals could see it further reduced by 22 votes. This makes Bowman still far to close to call (but with a slight edge to Labor).

In Flynn, Labor is well ahead. (Note: while Flynn is not on the ABC doubtful seat list, nor is it counted in the 80 sears the ABC has given to Labor).

Herbert (Coalition currently ahead by 60 votes), is looking okay for the Coalition providing the remaining votes continue to break in its favour.

Swan (Coalition ahead by 239 votes) should also be safe for the Coalition if the votes continue to break in its way.

Dickson is beginning to look safe-ish for the Coalition, with a lead of 106 votes and everything breaking in its favour.

McEwan, is a tougher call. Particularly as the AEC website is saying that it has counted more postal and pre-poll votes than it has received. The Coalition lead is currently 150 votes, but the absentee votes are breaking 60-40 in Labor’s favour. This one could still go Labor’s way.

In La Trobe, the Coalition is ahead by 544 votes.

Nationally, Labor’s TPP vote share is down from 53.41 per cent on election night to 52.90 per cent this morning.

At this point in the count, I reckon Labor will ultimately win between 82 and 85 seats. In addition to the 80 seats it has in the bank, Labor should get Flynn and Robertson. It will probably get Bowman. It may get Solomon. And it has a long-shot chance with Swan, McEwan, Dickson and Herbert (but it could end up with none of this last group).

This morning, there were two debutantes on the doubtful seat lists from the ABC and the AEC: Corangamite and Flynn. Both were previously listed as Labor gains. They are now classified as ALP ahead.

In Corangamite, the ordinary votes broke 51.6 to 48.4 in Labor’s favour. But the 4900 pre-poll votes to date went 58.5 to 41.5 in the Coalition’s favour, and the 4918 postal votes went 56.3 to 43.7 in the Coalition’s favour.

In Flynn, the reversal was more spectacular. The ordinary votes broke 52.25 to 47.75 in Labor’s favour. But some 6710 postal votes went 70.8 to 29.2 in the Coalition’s favour, while 3891 pre-poll votes went 58.5 to 41.5 in Labor’s favour.

Robertson has come off both lists. It is a Labor gain.

McEwan remains on the ABC doubtful seat list, but it is not on the AEC list. The Coalition is ahead in McEwan.

Solomon, which was only doubtful with the ABC yesterday, is now on both lists. Labor is ahead in Solomon.

The closest contest at the moment is Bowman, where Labor is on 50.01 per cent, and the Coalition is on 49.99 per cent.

The other doubtful seats are: Swan, Herbert, Dickson, Macarthur, and La Trobe. Labor is ahead in the first two, and the Coalition is ahead in the last three.

All up, the ABC computer has reduced its predicted seat outcome to 85 seats.

And in Bennelong, some more pre-poll and a few absent votes have been counted. They are breaking at around the 51-49 mark, so Maxine should be safe.

The ABC Computer now has Robertson on the doubtful list (previously a Labor gain) after the pre-poll votes went in the Coalition’s favour 53.3 to 46.7. It also has Solomon on the doubtful list after pre-poll votes broke 53.6 to 46.4 in the Coalition’s favour.

Of the doubtful seats on the ABC computer, the Coalition is now ahead in Bowman, Dickson, La Trobe, Macarthur, McEwan, and Swan. Labor is ahead in Herbert, Robertson and Solomon.

Whereas the ABC computer has nine doubtful seats, the AEC only has seven. The AEC is not listing McEwan (Coalition retain) or Solomon (Labor gain) as dountful. In McEwen, the pre-poll votes broke 55 to 45 in the Coalition’s favour.

The ABC Computer is back to predicting 86 seats for Labor, down from its Monday high of 88. It is possible that the Labor win might end up being as low as 83 seats.

Elsewhere

John Quiggan has some interesting observations on polls, pundits and punters.

Simon Jackman ponders ACNielsen’s performance this election.

Andrew Norton twists his tongue around the ideological future of the Liberal Party.

Yesterday saw some pre-poll votes counted.

The AEC now has the TPP result at 53.29 per cent in Labor’s favour. Antony’s computer now has the predicted outcome at 88 seats (up two from yesterday). The seats in doubt are: Bowman (Qld), Dickson (Qld), Herbert (Qld), La Trobe (Vic), Macarthur (NSW), McEwen (Vic), and Swan (WA). In all but Macarthur, Labor is ahead.

In Bennelong, Maxine is ahead by 2439 votes. She dropped some 50 votes when the first pre-poll votes were counted. My back of the envelope calculations suggest that Maxine would lose if Howard got something like more than 58 per cent of the absent, pre-poll and postal votes. In 2004, Howard got 57.6 per cent. If 2004 and the swing against Howard in booths offer any guidance, it will be close but Maxine should win.