Oz Politics Blog

I have been avoiding the WA election. I find its system where rural votes are worth two to three times urban votes just a little hard to get my head around. It also makes it hard to project opinion poll results into election outcomes. [Anyway, Antony Green and the pollbludger are doing a great job at covering this one].

The betting market is the other good predictor of election outcomes. Up until today the betting market at Centrebet had the odds at $1.85 each way. That is a win probability of 50% for both the Coalition and Labor.

Today the odds have the Coalition paying $1.60 for a win and Labor paying $2.20. That translates to a win probability of 58% for the Coalition and 42% for Labor.

I have been in Townsville for the last few days, so there have been no blogs.

Antony Green emailed me to say his Western Australia Election site is up and running.

You have got to wonder about all the Latham coverage in today’s papers. Is this the beginning of the end for Mark?