Oz Politics Blog

Some movement in the betting market for the WA election. Centrebet is paying $1.57 for a Labor win and $2.25 for a Coalition win. The implied win probabilities are 59 and 41 per cent respectively. We are back to where we were one week ago. Earlier odds here.

Update 16 Feb 05 @ 9 pm: We are back to $1.40 for Labor and $2.70 for the Coalition. This gives implied probabilities of 66 and 34 per cent respectively.

Update 17 Feb 05 @ 7 pm: Now paying $1.38 for Labor and $2.80 for the Coalition. This gives implied probabilities of 67 and 33 per cent respectively.

The Centrebet Manager has this analysis dated 11 February (slightly out of date now but still interesting):

With only a week to go in the Western Australian election, things have gone pear shaped for Opposition leader Colin Barnett following the release of his controversial plan to spend billions on a canal running from the Kimberley to Perth. It amazing how this revelation has turned the market upside down, and following on from that it is obvious that the residents of WA might not think it is such a good idea.

When betting first opened on the WA election, we posted both Labor (Geoff Gallop) and the Coalition at $1.85. Opinion polls had Barnett ahead, but we know how hard it is to remove incumbents, and were happy to lay them as they got shorter.

A couple of the bigger bets included $10,000 from a Sydney punter at $1.80, and $5000 from a Melbourne man at $1.60. The money from the West was scattered between both candidates, so we still had an open mind on which way it would go, and adopted a ‘wait and see’ attitude. Normally, unless something major happens, betting doesn’t change much until the final few days before polling as things become clearer. Well the press release regarding the canal became a major event as in the following four days we took close to $20,000 worth of bets for Labor, and less than $500 for the Coalition. If that wasn’t damning enough, all the bets came from Western Australia, so we have a similar position with the betting on this election as we did when Mark Latham released his forest policy in last years federal election, and we know what happened after that!

The fluctuations this week have seen Labor come from $2.30 into $1.57, with a recent bet of $10,000 coming at $1.65. Now that the Coalition have drifted out to $2.25 we have seen a sprinkling of money for them (including one bet of $1200 ), but at the moment it is all one way traffic, and while this flies in the face of what the polls say, it is our suggestion that Labor will be re-elected for another term.

Labor is firming as the favourite in the WA election. This evening, Centrebet is paying $1.57 for a Labor win and $2.25 for a Coalition win. The implicit probabilities are a 41 per cent chance of a Coalition win and a 59 per cent chance of a Labor win.

Update 9 Feb 05 @ 9 pm: Centrebet is now paying $1.50 for Labor and $2.40 for the Coalition. This gives implied probabilities of 62 and 38 per cent respectively.

Update 10 Feb 05 @ 5 am: Centrebet is now paying $1.45 for Labor and $2.50 for the Coalition. This gives implied probabilities of 63 and 37 per cent respectively.

Update 10 Feb 05 @ 6 pm: Centrebet is now paying $1.40 for Labor and $2.70 for the Coalition. This gives implied probabilities of 66 and 34 per cent respectively.

Update 13 Feb 05 @ 10 am: Centrebet is still paying $1.40 for Labor and $2.70 for the Coalition.

Update 14 Feb 05 @ 7 am: Centrebet is still paying $1.40 for Labor and $2.70 for the Coalition.

Update 15 Feb 05 @ 8:30 am: Centrebet is still paying $1.40 for Labor and $2.70 for the Coalition.

The Centrebet odds for the WA election remain unchanged over the past 5 days. Labor is on $2.10 and the Coalition is on $1.65 for the win. The implied win probabilities from these odds are 56% for the Coalition and 44% for Labor.

Update: At 7:20am there was no change over the past five days. It is now 7.20pm and the odds have turned around. Labor is ahead on $1.70 to win while the Coalition is on $2.00. This gives Labor a 54% chance of winning the election compared with the Coalition’s 46% chance.

Mumble has laid it on the line with the prediction that Labor will win the WA election with an 11 seat majority (in a story dated 5 February).

Two polling stories this morning.

First, according to the Australian,

After the first week of the West Australian campaign and the exit of Mark Latham as federal leader, Labor and the Coalition are now deadlocked on 50-50 in two-party-preferred terms.

With the federal party leadership resolved in favour of popular West Australian MP Kim Beazley, Labor has reached its highest level of primary support since taking office in 2001.

And while the Liberal-led Coalition maintains a slight lead in the primary vote, its support has fallen dramatically. According to the latest Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian, the gap between the state ALP and the Coalition parties on primary vote is now just two percentage points — a far cry from the 14-percentage-point gulf that separated them in December. The survey, taken last weekend, found support for the Coalition had fallen from 49 per cent in December to 44per cent.

Support for Labor increased from 35 per cent at the end of last year to 42 per cent.

It will be interesting to see whether the betting market moves as a result of this poll. Update: This evening Labor is on $2.10 and the Coalition is on $1.65 - so a bit of a bounce for Dr Gallop. The implied win probabilities from these odds are 56% for the Coalition and 44% for Labor.

The other poll in this morning’s papers was “leaked” to the SMH. Apparently internal Labor polling suggests the Liberals could win the Werriwa by-election following the departure of Mark Latham. The SMH played along and headed the story ALP poll nightmare: Liberals can win Latham seat.

I smell a rat. The give-away was the following paragraph:

A senior figure in the party, who asked not to be named, said the byelection would be extremely tough, because the party was starting from behind, but that Mr Beazley would play a big part in the campaign.

I reckon this ” leak” looks like a strategic bid by Labor for under-dog status. It could also be a warning to the electorate. Do not punish Labor for Latham’s exit, because if you do, you might just end up with a Liberal. Yeah right.

The betting market is increasingly suggesting a one term WA Labor government under Dr Gallop. The Centrebet odds for a Coalition win are now $1.55 compared with $2.30 for Labor, which translates to a win probability of 60% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor.