Oz Politics Blog

I have not been following the Victorian election that closely; in part because I have had a series of technology problems, in part because I have been too busy at work, but mostly because it looked like another boring lay-down-misere contest. With one week to go, it still looks that way. Centrebet is paying $7.50 for a Coalition win and $1.06 for a Labor win.

New South Wales looks much more interesting. Centrebet has the Coalition ahead to win the 2007 election (albeit marginally). Centrebet is paying $1.80 for a Coalition win and $1.90 for a Labor win.

A Coalition win in New South Wales in March 2007 should make for a more interesting Federal election in October 2007. Nonetheless, the Centrebet odds for the next Federal election are unchanged from last weekend: $1.57 for a Coalition win and $2.25 for a Labor win.

The odds for the next President of the United States are interesting.

CLINTON, Hillary (D) $3.00
McCAIN, John (R) $3.75
GIULIANI, Rudolph (R) $8.00
OBAMA, Barack (D) $8.00
GORE, Al (D) $11.00
EDWARDS, John (D) $17.00
ROMNEY, Mitt (R) $17.00
BAYH, Evan (D) $26.00
HUCKABEE, Mike (R) $26.00
RICE, Condoleezza (R) $26.00
RICHARDSON, Bill (D) $34.00
VILSACK, Tom (D) $34.00
BIDEN, Joe (D) $51.00
CLARK, Wesley (D) $51.00
HAGEL, Chuck (R) $51.00
GINGRICH, Newt (R) $67.00
KERRY, John (D) $67.00
BUSH, Jeb (R) $101.00

According to today’s Age, Labor is currently sitting on 56 per cent of the two party preferred vote, and the Coalition 44 per cent as we approach the Victorian poll on 25 November 2006.

Turning around a 56-44 split with one month to go is a Herculean task for the Coalition. The best hope the pollster can offer the Coaltion is …

Eighty-seven per cent of those surveyed supported Mr Baillieu’s policy — rejected by Labor — to cut poker machine numbers from 27,500 to 22,000. Only 6 per cent opposed it. Even among Labor voters, 86 per cent supported the Liberal proposal.

And in another hopeful sign for the Liberals, the latest poll shows the proportion of voters who say they are undecided about who they will support at the election has doubled over the past two months to 14 per cent.

ACNielsen research director John Stirton said: “While Labor is in a strong position, this unusually high proportion of undecideds is Mr Baillieu’s best hope of closing the gap between now and November 25.”

The Galaxy poll in the Herald Sun has a predicted outcome of 52 to 48 per cent in Labor’s favour: a much closer race.

Centrebet has Labor on $1.05 to win, and the Coalition on $8.00. That equates to a 12 per cent chance of a Coalition win, and an 88 per cent chance of a Labor win.

Today’s Australian has the New South Wales Coalition in freefall. Indeed all of the Labor states facing an election over the next 8 months look safe in the most recent Newspolls.

Morgan has released three polls on party leadership in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria.

• 51% of NSW voters prefer Morris Iemma to Peter Debnam (23%) as Premier. 54% approve of the way Mr Iemma is handling his job as Premier, 31% disapprove and 15% couldn’t say. Only slightly more voters approve (36%) than disapprove (35%) of the way Mr Debnam is handling his job.
• 67% Victorians prefer Steve Bracks to Robert Doyle (18%) as Premier. A majority of Victorians (56%) approve of the way Mr Bracks is handling his job as Premier, 34% disapprove and 10% couldn’t say. Only 30% of voters approve of the way Mr Doyle is handling his job as Opposition Leader, while 51% disapprove and 19% couldn’t say.
• 70% of Queenslanders prefer Peter Beattie to Lawrence Springborg (20%) as Premier. 62% of voters approve of the way Mr Beattie is handling his job as Premier, 32% disapprove while 6% couldn’t say. 42% approve of the way Mr Springborg is handling his job as Opposition Leader, 37% disapprove and 21% couldn’t say.

Personally, I would exercise some caution with these results. They are based on very small samples. For NSW the sample size was 409 electors. For Victoria it was 321 electors. And for Queensland it was 235 electors.