Oz Politics Blog

The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. Notwithstanding the minor movement from one bookmaker, this result is essentially unchanged from last week.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.66 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (was $1.65 and $2.10 last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.9 per cent
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
• SportingBet is paying $1.73 for a Coalition win and $2.00 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.6 per cent
• SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent

For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $6.00 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.09 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probability is 15 and 85 per cent respectively. This is an improvement for Labor, which was at 10 per cent on Saturday.

Centrebet’s odds for the winner of the South Australian seat of Norwood are unchanged since Saturday. This is Labor’s most marginal seat in the 18 March state election. Centrebet is paying $1.14 if Labor wins, five dollars if the Liberals win, $101 if Family First wins, $151 if the Greens win, and $151 if the Australian Democrats win.

Today Centrebet did not post odds on the 2007 NSW election. Also, Sportingbet did not post odds on the the Liberal leadership at the time of the 2007 Federal election.

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Tasmania

Centrebet is paying $1.04 if Labor wins fewer than 13 seats in Tasmania, and $9.00 if Labor wins 13 seats or more. In short, the punters believe that Labor has a ten per cent chance of securing majority government in Tasmania at the 18th of March election. Update 19 February at 10am: The odds are now $1.07 and $6.75 respectfully, which gives implied probabilities of 86 and 14 per cent.

The Mercury, contains the latest EMRS poll of 1002 Tasmanian voters. State wide, the poll predicts that Labor will win 32 per cent of the vote. The Liberals should win 25 per cent of the vote, and the Greens: 17 per cent. In the Hobart electorate of Denison, the Greens are polling 36 per cent compared with Labor on 35 per cent.

The EMRS poll suggests as a “best guess” of the election called by Premier Paul Lennon yesterday the ALP would get 11 seats, Liberals 7, The Greens 5, with two uncertain.

The Mercury believes that under Tasmania’s Hare Clark electoral system, it is very unlikely Labor would win 12 seats, let alone the 13 seats it needs for majority government.

South Australia

For South Australia, Centrebet has odds for the winner of the seat of Norwood. This is Labor’s most marginal seat. Centrebet is paying $1.14 if Labor wins, five dollars if the Liberals win, $101 if Family First wins, $151 if the Greens win, and $151 if the Australian Democrats win.

Apparently an Advertiser poll predicted a two-party preferred vote of 57 to 43 per cent in Labor’s favour, the same as the previous January 11 statewide poll. However, the article did not mention the date the poll was taken, nor the sample size.

According to the Mercury and the Examiner, Premier Lennon will call an election for Saturday the 18th of March 2006. Apparently the Tasmanian Cabinet will be meeting this morning (and not next Monday as usual). Political pundits have seized on this fact as evidence for an early election.

An 18 March 2006 election for Tasmania would coincide with the South Australia election. Green and Bowe have pages on the South Australian election.

There have been further allegations of (at least the appearance of) impropriety around the Betfair licence in the form of an unpaid feature article on the Lennon family relaxing at their historic home at Broadmarsh due to appear in the Packer owned Australian Women’s Weekly. Bob Carr, Bob Hawke and Malcomlm Fraser all had paid for feature articles in the Woman’s Weekly around election time. Lennon has denied any relationship between the two matters.

The Mercury also reported that Labor’s popular Launceston (Bass) representative (and former Miss Australia) Kathryn Hay would not be contesting the next state election. The loss of the popular candidate will make it more difficult for Labor in Bass at the next election.

The Herald Sun suggested the Tasmanian election will still be held in March (as rumoured) to aviod a Parliamentary sitting and further questions.

The Tassie Talks web site has a forum on the 2006 Tasmanian state election. The site lists the Labor and Liberal candidates. It is also an interesting collection of local opinion. I found this photo of a recent Liberal billboard there.

With strong rumours of an early election, the media is all over the allegations that the Tasmanian Premier, Paul Lennon, had engaged in potentially corrupt behaviour and misled Parliament about it.

At the heart of the allegations is information that came to light yesterday. The Premier received a free upgrade from a $200 per night room to a six-star, 31st-floor villa suite with free food and drinks worth an estimated $1500 per night when he stayed at the Packer owned Crown Casio for five nights for the 2005 Melbourne Cup.

Furthermore, on the day after checking out of the Crown, the Premier approved a $700 million licence for the Packer-Betfair UK consortium (Betfair Australia) to operate an online betting agency. The licence is awaiting approval from the Tasmanian Gaming Commission, an independent statutory authority.

Previously the Premier had denied receiving freebies from Packer. In Parliament on 8 November 2005, Lennon was asked (in part) whether he had “received any hospitality or services from PBL companies, including the Crown Casino”. His answer: “Did I receive any free hospitality from the Crown Casino? No, I did not”. On 9 November in Parliament, Mr Lennon reiterated,

I have not accepted any free hospitality, as you call it, except for a couple of glasses of wine in the Crown tent with about 300 other people on Melbourne Cup day, including, I might add for the benefit of the Leader of the Opposition, many other members of parliament from around Australia.

Yesterday, Lennon’s defence was two-fold. First, the upgrade was not asked for, and as Premier it is not unusual for him to receive upgrades. Such an upgrade is not free hospitality. Second, there was no conflict of interest in receiving the upgrade as the Cabinet made the decision to offer Betfair a licence on 24 October 2005, before the Premier’s stay at the Crown.

It has been suggested the second response begged further questions on the accuracy of the Premier’s statements to Parliament. On 25 October 2005, in response to a question about the online betting licence the Premier told the Parliament:

I have also said recently that the State Government is close to making a decision about whether we proceed or not, and as soon as all the issues associated with our considerations are finalised we will make an announcement.

However, the form of words is one of those wonderful politician techniques of (not) answering a question by reference to an earlier statement.

Nonetheless, allegations of corruption have the potential to be extremely damaging to the Labor Government, should the mud stick before the next election. Something Federal Labor MP Harry Quick has noted,

Harry Quick, said Mr Lennon had left himself open to damaging accusations of conflict of interest.

“I can’t believe someone would be so silly and stupid,” Mr Quick said yesterday, referring to Mr Lennon’s visit to Crown during Melbourne’s Spring Racing Carnival.

“I think majority government has disappeared down the toilet.”

I suspect this turmoil will dent the early election rumours.