Oz Politics Blog

What is happening in Tasmania? Today’s Sunday Examiner EMRS phone survey showed a strong swing back to Labor. State wide, Labor has lifted its support since the February EMRS poll from 40 to 44 per cent. The Liberals slipped from 33 per cent to 28 per cent. Support for the Greens fell from 22 per cent to 18 per cent. Undecided voters were at just 10 per cent.

When undecided votes were excluded the percentages were Labor 48, Liberal 31, the Greens 20 and others one.

While it is a close call, and difficult to prognosticate through the intricacies of the Hare-Clark system, on balance the pollster predicted that Labor would secure 13 seats, the Liberals would secure eight seats and the Greens four. Thirteen seats for Labor would yield a one seat majority and government in its own right.

This morning, Centrebet had its best odds for Labor since the election campaign started. Labor is on $3.25 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.28 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 28 and 72 per cent respectively.

Federal

The odds on the 2007 Federal election outcome have been remarkably stable since the beginning of the year. While they were quite volatile during the passage of the industrial relations legislation in the last quarter of 2005, they have been surprisingly unaffected by the Cole inquiry into the AWB in 2006.

The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election (unchanged on last week).

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.65 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (unchanged on last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.0 per cent
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05 (unchanged on last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
• SportingBet is paying $1.73 for a Coalition win and $2.00 for a Labor win (unchanged on last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.6 per cent
• SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent

The odds on when Howard’s reign will end as Prime Minister are:

• 2006 — $4.25 — yielding an implied probability of 20.7 per cent
• 2007 — $2.50 — 35.2 per cent
• 2008 — $4.25 — 20.7 per cent
• 2009 or later — $3.75 — 23.4 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

New South Wales

The odds for the New South Wales 2007 election are now even, paying $1.85 for both Labor and the Coalition.

Tasmania

For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $4.50 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.16 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 20 and 80 per cent respectively. This is the fifth day at these odds.

South Australia

For the South Australian election, Centrebet has Labor on $1.01 to win 24 or more seats (ie. majority government). Centrebet would pay $12 if Labor won less than 24 seats. The implied probabilities are 92.2 and 7.8 per cent respectively. This is the tenth day at these odds.

New South Wales

The big news in this week’s check of the betting market is New South Wales. Centrebet has Labor on $1.80 to win in 2007. The Coalition is on $1.90. The implied probability of winning is 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition. In August last year it was 59 and 41 per cent respectively.

Update 1 March 2006: The odds for the New South Wales 2007 election are now even, paying $1.85 for both Labor and the Coalition.

Tasmania

For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $4.00 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.20 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 23 and 77 per cent respectively.

South Australia

For the South Australian election, Centrebet has Labor on $1.01 to win 24 or more seats (ie. majority government). Centrebet would pay $12 if Labor won less than 24 seats. The implied probabilities are 92.2 and 7.8 per cent respectively. This is about as close as the betting market gets to a certainty.

Federal

The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.65 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (was $1.66 and $2.10 last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.0 per cent
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
• SportingBet is paying $1.73 for a Coalition win and $2.00 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.6 per cent
• SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The betting market at Centrebet appears to have reached an equilibrium point. Labor has about a 25 per cent probability of retaining majority government at the 18 March 2006 poll. A 75 per cent probability it will not.

The most recent TasPoll (also here) is in agreement. It predicted 11 seats for Labor, nine for the Liberals and five for the Greens.

Only 20 sleeps to go.

Centrebet has opened a new book on the South Australian election. It opened with Labor on $1.03 to achieve majority government with 24 or more seats. This equates to a 91 per cent probability.

The odds for the Tasmanian election continue to close. Labor is now on $5.00 to win majority government with 13 or more seats, which equates to a 19 per cent probability.