Oz Politics Blog

Federal

The odds on the 2007 Federal election outcome have been remarkably stable since the beginning of the year. While they were quite volatile during the passage of the industrial relations legislation in the last quarter of 2005, they have been surprisingly unaffected by the Cole inquiry into the AWB in 2006.

The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election (unchanged on last week).

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.65 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (unchanged on last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.0 per cent
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05 (unchanged on last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
• SportingBet is paying $1.73 for a Coalition win and $2.00 for a Labor win (unchanged on last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.6 per cent
• SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent

The odds on when Howard’s reign will end as Prime Minister are:

• 2006 — $4.25 — yielding an implied probability of 20.7 per cent
• 2007 — $2.50 — 35.2 per cent
• 2008 — $4.25 — 20.7 per cent
• 2009 or later — $3.75 — 23.4 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

New South Wales

The odds for the New South Wales 2007 election are now even, paying $1.85 for both Labor and the Coalition.

Tasmania

For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $4.50 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.16 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 20 and 80 per cent respectively. This is the fifth day at these odds.

South Australia

For the South Australian election, Centrebet has Labor on $1.01 to win 24 or more seats (ie. majority government). Centrebet would pay $12 if Labor won less than 24 seats. The implied probabilities are 92.2 and 7.8 per cent respectively. This is the tenth day at these odds.

New South Wales

The big news in this week’s check of the betting market is New South Wales. Centrebet has Labor on $1.80 to win in 2007. The Coalition is on $1.90. The implied probability of winning is 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition. In August last year it was 59 and 41 per cent respectively.

Update 1 March 2006: The odds for the New South Wales 2007 election are now even, paying $1.85 for both Labor and the Coalition.

Tasmania

For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $4.00 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.20 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 23 and 77 per cent respectively.

South Australia

For the South Australian election, Centrebet has Labor on $1.01 to win 24 or more seats (ie. majority government). Centrebet would pay $12 if Labor won less than 24 seats. The implied probabilities are 92.2 and 7.8 per cent respectively. This is about as close as the betting market gets to a certainty.

Federal

The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.65 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (was $1.66 and $2.10 last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.0 per cent
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
• SportingBet is paying $1.73 for a Coalition win and $2.00 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.6 per cent
• SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Centrebet has opened a new book on the South Australian election. It opened with Labor on $1.03 to achieve majority government with 24 or more seats. This equates to a 91 per cent probability.

The odds for the Tasmanian election continue to close. Labor is now on $5.00 to win majority government with 13 or more seats, which equates to a 19 per cent probability.

The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. Notwithstanding the minor movement from one bookmaker, this result is essentially unchanged from last week.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.66 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (was $1.65 and $2.10 last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.9 per cent
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
• SportingBet is paying $1.73 for a Coalition win and $2.00 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.6 per cent
• SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent

For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $6.00 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.09 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probability is 15 and 85 per cent respectively. This is an improvement for Labor, which was at 10 per cent on Saturday.

Centrebet’s odds for the winner of the South Australian seat of Norwood are unchanged since Saturday. This is Labor’s most marginal seat in the 18 March state election. Centrebet is paying $1.14 if Labor wins, five dollars if the Liberals win, $101 if Family First wins, $151 if the Greens win, and $151 if the Australian Democrats win.

Today Centrebet did not post odds on the 2007 NSW election. Also, Sportingbet did not post odds on the the Liberal leadership at the time of the 2007 Federal election.

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Tasmania

Centrebet is paying $1.04 if Labor wins fewer than 13 seats in Tasmania, and $9.00 if Labor wins 13 seats or more. In short, the punters believe that Labor has a ten per cent chance of securing majority government in Tasmania at the 18th of March election. Update 19 February at 10am: The odds are now $1.07 and $6.75 respectfully, which gives implied probabilities of 86 and 14 per cent.

The Mercury, contains the latest EMRS poll of 1002 Tasmanian voters. State wide, the poll predicts that Labor will win 32 per cent of the vote. The Liberals should win 25 per cent of the vote, and the Greens: 17 per cent. In the Hobart electorate of Denison, the Greens are polling 36 per cent compared with Labor on 35 per cent.

The EMRS poll suggests as a “best guess” of the election called by Premier Paul Lennon yesterday the ALP would get 11 seats, Liberals 7, The Greens 5, with two uncertain.

The Mercury believes that under Tasmania’s Hare Clark electoral system, it is very unlikely Labor would win 12 seats, let alone the 13 seats it needs for majority government.

South Australia

For South Australia, Centrebet has odds for the winner of the seat of Norwood. This is Labor’s most marginal seat. Centrebet is paying $1.14 if Labor wins, five dollars if the Liberals win, $101 if Family First wins, $151 if the Greens win, and $151 if the Australian Democrats win.

Apparently an Advertiser poll predicted a two-party preferred vote of 57 to 43 per cent in Labor’s favour, the same as the previous January 11 statewide poll. However, the article did not mention the date the poll was taken, nor the sample size.