Oz Politics Blog

Better late than never. Today’s Sunday Mail reported a poll of 601 South Australian voters. The headline prediction was a state-wide two-party preferred vote share of 59 per cent for Labor and 41 per cent for the Coalition.

The key issues for South Australians in the coming election were:

• The water shortage (84 per cent)
• Education and training opportunities (73 per cent)
• Climate change (66 per cent)

The Coalition holds three South Australian seats with less than a one percent margin: Kingston, Wakefield and Makin. All would become safe Labor seats with this sort of swing. If this poll is a reliable predictor of the next election, Labor should also have comfortable wins in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt and Andrew Southcott’s seat of Boothby.

Details here. Interestingly, Coalition and Labor voters were pretty similar on the importance of the water shortage in South Australia.

Hat tip to Mystery and benunderscore

The Parliamentary Library has released a 20 page Research Brief on the 18 March 2006 state elections in Tasmania and South Australia.

Given the thumping Labor victories, the Research Brief poses an interesting question. “One might wonder just what, if anything, the two state Liberal divisions might have done that might have produced a different election outcome.”

Antony Green, William Bowe and Upper House all provided live coverage of the election counts.

In Tasmania, Lennon has stormed home to (in all likelihood) retain Labor’s 14 seats, containing the swing against Labor to -2.3 per cent. The Liberals look like gaining one seat to have 8 seats. The Greens look like losing one seat (and party status), leaving them with 3 seats. (There is an outside possibility that the score might be as high as 15-7-3 for Labor).

In South Australia, the nation’s most popular Premier has also had a thumping victory. With a 9.2 per cent swing to Labor, Rann has a guaranteed 28 seats and looks like picking up 30 seats.

In one of those odd couple moments, the Tiser reported:

The state’s sole Nationals MP Karlene Maywald cemented her hold on Chaffey, polling some 70 per cent of the vote, and also will be a member of the new ministry. While independent Bob Such easily held his seat of Fisher, his role of Speaker is now under threat with eager Labor backbenchers expected to jockey for the spoils of victory.

In the South Australian upper house, the ‘no pokies’ independent Nick Xenophon has got himself and Ann Marie Bressington elected. Family First and the Greens are sitting on 0.6 and 0.5 of a quota respectively, and both have a good chance of getting one upper house seat on preferences. The Australian Democrats, on 0.2 of a quota is likely to drop out. Labor should get four seats and the Liberals 3. Labor will not gain control of the upper house.

Tomorrow both South Australia and Tasmania go to the polls.

The betting market has it as a lay down misere in South Australia, giving the Liberals a ten per cent chance of winning, and Labor a 90 per cent chance.

In Tasmania the story is less clear. The Centrebet punters think that Labor has a 40 per cent chance of getting enough seats to hold majority government in its own right, and a 60 per cent chance that it wont. (Update at 7am 18 March 2006: This morning’s odds are even money — paying $1.85 each way.)

According to today’s Mercury, the polls are in agreement. It will be a close call.

THE Lennon Labor Government is poised on the edge of retaining its majority rule at tomorrow’s state election, according to the cliffhanger results of the latest Mercury TasPoll voter survey.

A swing back to Labor in the past two weeks now puts the crucial 13 seats needed for majority rule — and a ticket to absolute power — clearly within its grasp.

In the largest election telephone survey yet, of 2000 Tasmanians taken in the four days before Wednesday, nearly 42 per cent said they now intended to vote Labor… The Mercury TasPoll found that nearly one in 10 voters in Tasmania has still to make up their minds how they will vote tomorrow.

Federal

Labor’s implosion over the last week has seen two bookies downgrade its chances. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 55.6 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election (up on 54.8 per cent last week).

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.60 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20 (was $1.65 and $2.10 last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.9 per cent
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05 (unchanged on last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
• SportingBet is paying $1.70 for a Coalition win and $2.05 for a Labor win (was $1.73 and $2.00 last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 54.7 per cent
• SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent

This morning, Centrebet did not have odds on when Howard’s reign will end as Prime Minister. The most recent odds I have are from yesterday.

• 2006 — $5.00 — yielding an implied probability of 17.6 per cent
• 2007 — $2.50 — 35.2 per cent
• 2008 — $4.00 — 22.0 per cent
• 2009 or later — $3.50 — 25.2 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Tasmania

The punter’s reappraisal of Lennon’s chance of winning majority government continues. For the Tasmanian state election this coming Saturday, Centrebet has Labor on $3.00 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.36 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 31 and 69 per cent respectively. These are the best odds for Labor since the campaign started.

South Australia

For the South Australian election this coming Saturday, Centrebet has Labor on $1.01 to win 24 or more seats (ie. majority government). Centrebet would pay $12 if Labor won less than 24 seats. The implied probabilities are 92.2 and 7.8 per cent respectively.

New South Wales

The odds for the New South Wales 2007 election unchanged on last week, paying $1.85 for both Labor and the Coalition.