Oz Politics Blog

Today’s Courier Mail, Herald Sun and Daily Telegraph reported a Queensland-wide Galaxy poll of 800 voters last Wednesday and Thursday evening. The detailed poll results are here.

The predicted state-wide two-party preferred vote shares, were an election held last week, were 52 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition. That represents a 3 point movement from the February state-wide poll result of 55 to 45 per cent in Labor’s favour. But it is almost nine percentage points off the mark set at the previous election: 57.1 to 42.9 in the Coalition’s favour.

Update: Darryl Rosin identified an error in the 2004 results from the CM. I have corrected the 2004 election results above to reflect those on the AEC web site. Previously, I had used the figures from the Courier Mail

Today’s Courier Mail contained a Galaxy poll of 800 Queenslanders on the next Federal election. The headline result was a predicted state-wide two party preferred vote that was statistically identical to the Coalition’s crushing win in 2004: 55 per cent for the Coalition and 45 per cent for Labor.

Interestingly, there were some movements in the predicted primary votes. The Greens increased from 3.5 per cent in 2004 to 10 per cent. Labor declined 2.7 points to 32 per cent. The Coalition improved 1.4 points to 47 per cent. Family First scored six per cent.

Thinking now about federal politics. If a federal election was held today, with John Howard and Kim Beazley as the two leaders of the major parties, which one of the following would you vote for?

	Election Oct 2004	15/16 Nov 2006
	%	%
ALP	34.7	32
The Liberal Party	36.5	41
The Nationals	9.1	6
Total Coalition	45.6	47
The Greens	3.5	10
Family First	-	6
Another party or an independent candidate	16.2	5

5% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred:

	Election Oct 2004	15/16 Nov 2006
	%	%
ALP	45.1	45
Coalition	54.9	55

 This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on the evenings of November 15-16, 2006. Results are based on the opinions of 800 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of Queensland.

Today’s Australian has the New South Wales Coalition in freefall. Indeed all of the Labor states facing an election over the next 8 months look safe in the most recent Newspolls.

… have just firmed for Labor.

You may need to hit the refresh button on your browser to get the updated probabilities image.

This morning Centrebet is paying $1.05 for a Labor win and $8.00 for a Coalition win. That equates to an 88 per cent probability of a Labor government and a 12 per cent probability of a Coalition government. Update: on 23 August it moved to $1.02 and $10.00 — yielding probabilities of 91 and 9 per cent. Update: on 3 September it moved to $1.03 and $9.00. Update: on 5 September it was $1.04 and $8.00. Update: on 6 September it is back to $1.02 and $10.00.

Today’s Newspoll has Beattie “well-placed to secure a historic fourth term in power”, with an eight point lead in its two party preferred prediction. Morgan gave Labor a 13 point lead in its two party preferred prediction for Queensland. Update: on 26 August Galaxy gave Labor 47 per cent of the primary vote and “edging closer to” 55.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

The Poll Bludger and Antony Green are both maintaining their excellent standards of coverage for the Queensland election.

Queensland

Following Premier Beattie’s announcement yesterday of a 9 September election in Queensland, the books are open. This morning Centrebet is paying $1.10 for a Labor win and $6.00 for a Coalition win. That equates to an 85 per cent probability of a Labor government and a 15 per cent probability of a Coalition government.

Update 8am 17 August 2006: Now $1.12 and $5.50, yielding an 83 per cent probability for a Labor government, and a 17 per probability for a Coalition government.

Update 7.30am 18 August 2006: Back to $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 8.00am 19 August 2006: $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 7.00am 20 August 2006: $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 8.00am 21 August 2006: $1.10 and $6.00.

Update 9.00am 22 August 2006: $1.05 and $8.00 — probabilities of 88 and 12 per cent.

Federal

There was no movement to report in the betting market for the next Federal election. The average of the four bookmakers suggested a 57.6 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.57 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.9 per cent (unchanged on Wednesday last week)
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.67 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.8 per cent (unchanged)
• SportingBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.15 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.3 per cent (unchanged)
• SportsBet is paying $1.60 for a Coalition win and $2.25 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.4 per cent (unchanged)

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.