Oz Politics Blog

The Weekend Australian reported the Newspoll of 1200 Darwin residents conducted between Tuesday and Thursday last week (although to be accurate, that report did not mention the date of polling). In today’s Australian we find Newspoll also asked questions on people’s perceptions about issues management.

NORTHERN Territory Chief Minister Clare Martin has received another boost in her bid for a second term, with Labor leading the Opposition as the party most voters believe can best handle key issues such as the economy, health and education.

With the parties gearing up for the final week of campaigning ahead of Saturday’s election, an exclusive Newspoll for The Australian has found Labor leads the Country Liberal Party with big margins on six out of seven issues.

But voters are almost evenly split on law and order, one of the dominant issues in a campaign largely focused on drunk Aboriginal itinerants and antisocial behaviour. Labor is favoured by 42per cent of voters on the issue, compared with the CLP’s 40per cent.

Labor has promised to jail “habitual drunks” who refuse treatment, while the CLP has vowed to implement a zero-tolerance approach to anti-social behaviour that includes three-strike mandatory sentencing for property crime.

However, Labor holds a significant lead over the CLP in other key issues, including 51per cent support on education compared with 28per cent for the CLP.

Forty-seven per cent of voters said Labor could best handle the economy, against the CLP’s 36per cent. Labor also leads the CLP by 46per cent to 32per cent on health, and 41per cent to 25per cent on the environment.

I just love reports like this … (not true). Anyone know what the two missing issues were? Perhaps there will be another report in tomorrow’s Australian.

I also “like” the way the journalist (Ashleigh Wilson) fudges why she did not report this story on Saturday.

The results come after a Newspoll published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday found that Ms Martin enjoyed a comfortable lead over Opposition Leader Denis Burke after two weeks of campaigning.

It almost makes you believe there were two separate polls, one after the other. But ask yourself, if there was a second poll, why not ask about and report on voting preference.

Not happy Ashleigh.

From the Centrebet website this morning …

As you may be aware, we are merging the Centrebet, SportOdds and SuperOdds businesses to bring you an improved, world standard online wagering and gaming experience.

Achieving our goal requires system-wide improvements. Accordingly we have scheduled web and network upgrades from approximately 03:00 AEST on Tuesday 14th June 2005 (17:00 - 13/06 GMT) until 15:00 AEST (05:00 - 14/06 GMT).

During these hours all our web sites and wagering services will be unavailable. Account settlements (withdrawals) will not be processed on Tuesday 14th June due to the improvement work.

We apologise for any inconvenience caused and look forward to delivering you an exciting, new and improved Centrebet when we return.

The NT election betting market graphs are here.

The Newspoll published in today’s Weekend Australian suggests a Labor landslide at next Saturday’s Northern Territory election.

One week out from polling day, an exclusive Newspoll for The Weekend Australian found Ms Martin’s Labor Government leads the CLP by 14 percentage points, with 57 per cent support on a two-party-preferred basis.

That compares with 48.5 per cent in two-party-preferred terms at the 2001 territory election.

In contrast, the opposition CLP has recorded just 43 per cent voter support, down from 51.5 per cent four years ago.

Updated: If we assume a uniform territory wide swing of 9.5 per cent and apply it to the pendulum it would see Labor win between five and seven additional seats [Araluen, Nelson, Braitling, Port Darwin, Greatorex, MacDonnell, and Katherine]. Antony Green’s pendulum differs from mine. Green has sought to address the post 2001 redistribution. Nonetheless his pendulum yields a similar result.

However some caveats need to be noted at this point. First, the poll results came from a survey of 1200 people in 12 electorates in Darwin. This Darwin swing may not be extrapolated to the rest of the Territory. Second, the NT electorates are very small - around 4500 voters each. This means the ‘law of large numbers’ is less applicable, and consequently random results are more likely. Third, Nelson and Braitling are held by independents and may not be as affected by Territory-wide swings to or from Labor. Fourth, and we all know this, swings are never uniform - even within the 12 surveyed electorates.

The poll predicted primary vote results of 52 per cent for Labor and 40 per cent for the Country Liberal Party. At the 2001 Territory election the results were 43.8 per cent and 48.3 per cent respectively.

The attitudinal polls also favoured Labor.

More than half the voters, or 58 per cent, were satisfied with the way Ms Martin was doing her job as Chief Minister, while only 36 per cent said they were satisfied with Mr Burke’s work as Opposition Leader.

Fifty-seven per cent said Ms Martin, a former ABC journalist, would make a better chief minister, compared with 31 per cent for Mr Burke. And 59 per cent of voters — including 33 per cent of CLP supporters — believe Labor will win next weekend’s election.

Updated: Given the Newspoll result I have decided to revise my earlier prediction up by one. Labor will win between 16 and 18 of the 25 seats. I appear to be in heated agreement with the poll bludger, who is tipping a Labor win with 17 seats.

I have another short-term prediction: I expect Centrebet’s odds will firm for Labor in the next 24 hours on the back of this poll. (Update: just to spite me, between 6am and 1pm on Saturday the odds for Labor had drifted from $1.20 to $1.25. This saw Labor’s probability of winning fall from 77 per cent to 74 per cent. I wonder what the punters know that I do not? Further update: Martin and Burke went head to head on NT Stateline on Friday night. Apparently the consensus view was that Burke won.)

This gem comes from the NT News. Anywhere else it would be a negative, but in the Northern Territory, who knows.

Blind man in punch-up at CLP launch
By PAUL DYER, 10 June 2005

The CLP’s official election campaign launch degenerated into a farce when a visually impaired man knocked down a party stalwart after a political argument.

Police were called and the man was taken to Royal Darwin Hospital.

Opposition Leader Denis Burke had just finished his keynote address to the party faithful at the new upmarket Darwin Airport Resort when the trouble started.

CLP member Roberto Isatti, who uses a white cane and guide dog to get around, became involved in a dispute with another of the party faithful. The row ended with punches being thrown and the unnamed CLP member being “flattened”. Mr Isatti refused to comment on the matter yesterday.

But one witness said the incident occurred after a heated discussion took place near the hotel reception.

“They were pointing fingers at one another,” he said.

The witness said both men threw and landed punches — but it was not clear who started the fight.

“Then Roberto took one swing and missed — then he took a second swing and decked him” he said. “He knocked him over.”

About 200 people attended the function, which was held on Wednesday night.

Witnesses said police struggled to contain their laughter when they arrived to take statements.

Police last night confirmed there was an incident at the resort in which two men — who knew each other — were involved in a fracas and one was punched in the jaw.

But no formal complaint was laid.

Ambulance officers also were called, arriving about 9.30pm.

What an interesting cauldron of issues: nuclear waste, drunken itinerants, electricity costs, waterslides and a BMX track, and more drunken itinerants. See Ken Parish for a local perspective on the election, or the poll bludger for an outsider’s view.

A bit of a jump in the betting market over the last 24 hours has seen the County Liberal’s odds drift to $3.70. It looks like the punters now give the CLP just a 25 per cent chance of winning. The following graphs show the current state of play.

Updated daily: you may need to hit the refresh button on your browser to get the latest graphs. Note: The betting market results for 14 June were taken in the evening, rather than in the morning (my practice for the other days).

Its time for a prediction: I think Labor will win between 15 and 17 of the 25 seats — an improvement on its current 13.

Update: News from Centrebet:

ELECTIONS
by Gerard Daffy June 9, 2005

The Northern Territory election is in full swing and with two weeks to go, Labor have cleared out as hot favourites. It has been on the back of heavy betting from other parts of Australia not the NT.

To date, close to $70,000 has been wagered on the NT election but over half has come from the Eastern seaboard. The largest bet so far, $20,000 came for Labor from a Queensland client which saw the 1.28 disappear. We had previously taken four separate bets of $5000 for Labor, and all of those had come from New South Wales. The interesting thing from a local point of view is that of the money wagered from within the Northern Territory, most of that, including bets of $4000 and $2000, has been for the CLP.