Oz Politics Blog

It is about time I paid some attention to the NSW election on 24 March 2007. There is a frisson with this election. In the one corner we have the vaguely unpopular Morris Iemma leading what many would call a tired and bumbling government. In the other corner we have the morals campaigner and fundamentalist: Peter Debnam. Tired versus ugly is not a menu many voters find appealing. Dom Knight described the context for this election in the following terms.

On Labor’s record, this should be a one-sided election. The broad dissatisfaction with the Carr legacy (which inspired the meekly apologetic tone of Iemma’s slogan) combined with the remarkable succession of scandals under the new Premier — Scully, Orkopoulos and Chaytor the most prominent dominoes to topple — would surely have put a halfway competent leader like Brogden miles ahead by now. But every gaffe of Iemma’s seems to be matched by an even bigger disaster from Debnam. Most foolishly, while riding high after picking up several unexpected scalps, Debnam inexplicably tried to add another, Attorney-General Bob Debus, using the testimony of a convicted child sex offender. Extraordinarily, this left him even further behind Iemma’s government in the polls. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Labor government goes into the poll with a huge safety buffer. It won the 2003 election in a landslide: 55 Labor seats, 32 Coalition seats and 6 independents. With subsequent resignations and by-elections, Labor now has 52 seats, the Coalition 30 and independents 10. One seat is vacant.

From the last election, (and factoring in new electoral boundaries), the Coalition needs a 12.3 per cent swing to win government outright. Any thing less than a uniform 4 per cent swing to the Coalition, would see no net gain for the Coalition. An 8.7 per cent swing would see a hung parliament, with the independents holding the balance of power. With a ten per cent swing, the Coalition should win more seats than Labor.

But a change of government is a big ask. The most recent polls have Labor in a strong position. Newspoll in November-December 2006 had the state wide two-party preferred prediction at 53 for the Coalition to 47 for Labor. The January 2007 Morgan poll had Labor on 58 and the Coalition on 42.

The betting markets agree on the likely outcome. Centrebet has Labor as the strong favourite.

My tip? Notwithstanding the polls, I reckon there will be a small late swing against the Labor Government. Consequently, I am tipping a Labor win with 51 seats — a reduced majority. (Update: my tip at 51 did not even last a day).

I know I am out on a limb here. The Poll Bludger argued that Labor should keep all its seats, and possibly gain some. Truly surprising when you consider the troubles the Government has navigated over recent months. We will see whether I hold my nerve with my slightly pessimistic tip, or whether I will chicken out closer to the election date and increase Labor’s seat count.

Check out Anthony Green’s election site or William Bowe’s election site. Both are excellent.

I just happened upon Morris Iemma’s website. Iemma was not well advised on the video clip. For me, it felt contrived and self conscious. If it was not on Iemma’s website, you would have thought it was a spoof from the boys at Chaser. My wife placed it in the genre of The Castle. I thought it was closer to We Can Be Heros

If I was Iemma’s spin doctor, I would have advised releasing this information through a low key backgrounder to the media. It is a good humanising story. I would have done it when Carr left and Iemma was new in the job. I would have told Iemma never to raise it or talk about it. Just let the story be out there as background information. Don’t ham it up. Don’t play to it.

What did you think?

The purple zone

Well, it is on for young and old. Shaun Carney and Michelle Grattan list Beazley’s flaws according to his unnamed party room detractors.

• He has focused too much on the Government’s industrial relations changes at the expense of other issues, a repeat of his failed anti-GST strategy in the 2001 election.
• Labor has been left behind on broader issues, including climate change, Iraq and education.
• The Prime Minister’s use of “values” in debates over such areas as citizenship has failed to elicit a workable response from the Labor leadership and has left the Opposition floundering.
• Mr Beazley’s regular mispronunciations, of which his Rove McManus/Karl Rove confusion on Friday was just the latest example, are hurting his credibility.
• His closeness to twice-jailed former West Australian premier Brian Burke is damaging the party’s prospects in that state.

Carney and Grattan also dispense with the pre-Christmas deadline for any leadership challenge. This purple zone could drag on until March 2007. A prospect with which Labor would not be happy.

Phillip Adams has an op-ed that begins with the memorable phrase, Kimbo’s in limbo.

ACNielsen: 51 to 49 for Labor in New South Wales

The SMH has the latest ACNielsen polling from NSW.

THE last tumultuous month of sleaze and sex scandals in the NSW Parliament has damaged Labor but proved disastrous for the Opposition Leader, Peter Debnam, a new Herald/ACNielsen poll reveals.

The poll of 1014 voters, taken last Friday and Saturday, shows Labor’s primary vote has sunk 4 percentage points to 36 per cent - its lowest level since 1997. The Coalition’s support has dropped, too, as voters defect to independents, the Democrats and Greens.

But the worst news for the Opposition is with its leader: Mr Debnam’s approval rating has plunged 9 points since July to 29 per cent.

What should have been a rolled political gold opportunity for Opposition Leader Peter Debman has turned to dirt. He clearly overreached with his attacks on Attorney-General Bob Debus.

I have not been following the Victorian election that closely; in part because I have had a series of technology problems, in part because I have been too busy at work, but mostly because it looked like another boring lay-down-misere contest. With one week to go, it still looks that way. Centrebet is paying $7.50 for a Coalition win and $1.06 for a Labor win.

New South Wales looks much more interesting. Centrebet has the Coalition ahead to win the 2007 election (albeit marginally). Centrebet is paying $1.80 for a Coalition win and $1.90 for a Labor win.

A Coalition win in New South Wales in March 2007 should make for a more interesting Federal election in October 2007. Nonetheless, the Centrebet odds for the next Federal election are unchanged from last weekend: $1.57 for a Coalition win and $2.25 for a Labor win.

The odds for the next President of the United States are interesting.

CLINTON, Hillary (D) $3.00
McCAIN, John (R) $3.75
GIULIANI, Rudolph (R) $8.00
OBAMA, Barack (D) $8.00
GORE, Al (D) $11.00
EDWARDS, John (D) $17.00
ROMNEY, Mitt (R) $17.00
BAYH, Evan (D) $26.00
HUCKABEE, Mike (R) $26.00
RICE, Condoleezza (R) $26.00
RICHARDSON, Bill (D) $34.00
VILSACK, Tom (D) $34.00
BIDEN, Joe (D) $51.00
CLARK, Wesley (D) $51.00
HAGEL, Chuck (R) $51.00
GINGRICH, Newt (R) $67.00
KERRY, John (D) $67.00
BUSH, Jeb (R) $101.00

Today’s Australian has the New South Wales Coalition in freefall. Indeed all of the Labor states facing an election over the next 8 months look safe in the most recent Newspolls.