Oz Politics Blog

Today’s Australian reported that a Newspoll over last weekend had the gap between Labor and the Liberals closing in NSW. The headline prediction was a state-wide two-party preferred vote of 56 per cent for labor and 44 per cent for the Coalition. The primary votes were 42 per cent for Labor and 37 for the Coalition. This result is an improvement for the Coalition on the poll conducted over the first two months of 2007. That poll predicted 59 to 41 per cent split in Labor’s favour.

I suspect the preference flows to the Coalition (at 33 per cent) are a little low, and a more accurate TPP prediction would be 55 to 45 per cent. But it is a moot point, as neither 56/44 nor 55/45 would see a significant change to the make-up of the NSW Legislative Assembly.

2007 Federal Election

The average probability from the five bookies for a Coalition government following the 2007 election is 52.0 per cent. It was 51.7 per cent on Monday.

Bennelong

Perhaps the most interesting odds have been Sportingbet’s on who will win the seat of Bennelong. In just under two weeks, Maxine McKew has been dropped by the punters.

Centrebet also has a book on Bennelong. However, rather than focus on the parties, it offers odds on the players: $1.18 for Howard, $4.50 for McKew and $14.00 for anyone else. Centrebet’s odds on anyone else are interesting, as they allow for the prospect of Howard or McKew withdrawing from the race.

NSW Election

The odds for the NSW Election on 24 March have not moved significantly over the campaign period. According to Centrebet, Labor has an 82 per cent probability of taking Government.

Centrebet has Labor the favourite in Wollondilly, Tweed, Port Stephens, Penrith, Murray-Darling (just), Monaro, Kiama, Gosford, Drummoyne, Camden and Balmain. The Coalition is the favourite in Terrigal, Tamworth (just), Pittwater and Bega. And an independent is the favourite in Manly (just) and Dubbo.

SportingBet is running a book on how many seats labor will win in the NSW Legislative Assembly. The favourite range is 45-50 seats, closely followed by 50-55 seats.

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Centrebet has opened a book on the marginal seats in the NSW Election. It gives an insight to how the punters think some key seats will go.

Balmain

Labor is the favourite over the Greens, with the odds giving a winning probability of 56 per cent to 37 per cent

Dubbo

Is neck and neck, with the independent (Fardell on 49 per cent) slightly ahead of the Nationals (48 per cent). Updated 8/3: 57 to 41 per cent in favour of the independent

Manly

Close - the independent (Barr on 50 per cent) is the favourite over the Liberals (44 per cent). Updated 8/3: 50 to 45 per cent

Monaro

Close - Labor (51 per cent) is the favourite over the Nationals (47 per cent). Updated 8/3: 61 to 37 per cent

Murray-Darling

Close - Labor (53 per cent) is the favourite over the Nationals (45 per cent)

Penrith

Labor (64 per cent) is the favourite over the Liberals (35 per cent)

Pittwater

The Liberal candidate (55 per cent) is the favourite over the independent (McTaggart - 34 per cent)

Port Stephens

Labor (57 per cent) is the favourite over the Liberals (40 per cent). Updated 8/3: 59 to 37 per cent

Tamworth

Close - the National candidate (46 per cent) is the favourite over the independent (Draper - 44 per cent).

Terrigal

The Liberal (58 per cent) is the favourite over Labor (38 per cent)

Tweed

Close - Labor (50 per cent) is the favourite over the Nationals (45 per cent)

Wollondilly

Close - Labor (47 per cent) is the favourite over the Liberals (46 per cent). Updated 8/3: 52 to 41 per cent

If you do not want to outlay money, you can enter my (free) tipping competition on the NSW Marginal seats.

Overall, Labor is the clear favourite to win the poll.

I now have three tipping competitions up for the NSW election. In order of difficulty, they are:

• NSW Legislative Assembly 2007
• NSW Legislative Council 2007
• NSW Legislative Assembly Individual Seat Results 2007

Today’s papers carry two polls. Both are disastrous for Team Debnam and the NSW Coalition parties.

Newspoll for January-February 2007 has Labor state-wide predicted two party preferred share at 59 per cent to the Coalition’s 41 per cent.

ACNielsen’s poll from last weekend has a similar result: 57 per cent for Labor and 43 per cent for the Coalition.

A couple of observations: First NSW has optional preferential voting. NSW voters must put 1 in the box of the preferred candidate. They do not need to number any further squares for their vote to be valid. If they do number further squares, and their preferred candidate is excluded from the count, their vote will be transferred to their second preferred candidate, and so on, as far as they have numbered the ballot paper. With both of the major parties on the nose, primary votes may be more important in determining the outcome, rather than preferences. It is likely that a sizable number of voters will not preference either if the major parties. Also possible, the number of independents and minor party candidates may increase.

Second, this election may become another example of poorly performing opposition leaders helping lame duck governments secure an increased majority re-election. It is something I call the Hewson effect, after Keating’s 1993 victory. Although to be fair, it could be called the Doc Evatt effect. While ‘lame duck’ may be too severe a description for the Howard Government in 2004, the Mark Latham effect increased the Coalition’s vote share at that election.

So what does this mean for my tipping? I am becoming the man who changed his tips more than he changed his underwear. I have upped the seat count to 55. While I am tempted to up it further, I suspect the optional preferential voting system will see more independents and minor parties, rather than more Labor members.