Antony Green wrote:
The research I’ve been doing on NSW elections has now been published as a draft website. You can find it at: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/resources/electionsanalysis
Quite happy for it to be pointed at and for people to use while someone works out exactly what they want to do with its formatting. It’s currently all laid out in my rather basic HTML.
The latest notional TPP count figures have Labor winning 53 seats, the Coalition 35, and the independents 5.
The close seat contests are: Port Stephens (where the Coalition is ahead of Labor by 19 votes); Newcastle (where Labor is ahead of the independent by 363 votes); Miranda (where Labor is ahead of the Coalition by 557 votes); Maitland (where Labor is ahead of the independent by 584 votes); Lake Macquarie (where Labor is ahead of the independent by 65 votes); and Dubbo (where the independent is ahead of the Coalition by 709 votes).
Peter Debnam has resigned his position as NSW Opposition leader. Apparently he did not have the numbers to stave off Barry O’Farrell’s challenge.
And Morris Iemma deferred appointing new minister Paul Gibson just hours before he was to be sworn in. Gibson is alleged to have assaulted his former partner Sandra Nori. The matter has been referred to the police for investigation.
Update: 4 April 2007: The NSW Count appears finished, except for Port Stephens where a recount is occurring, The only change from the previous count was that Lake Macquarie ended up being won by the independent, Greg Piper. Provided the Liberals can hold Port Stephens in the recount: the final outcome looks like: Labor 52, Coalition: 35, and Indpdendents: 6.
The NSW Election Commission has completed a notional allocation of preferences for all seats.
The following seats look safe: Barwon (Nat), Maitland (Lab), Menai (Lab), Newcastle (Lab).
The following seats still look too close to call:
Tonight, from 6.30pm, I will be updating this page with live election night commentary.
An ongoing tally is at the bottom of the page.
My election tipping competition has closed.
Note: I am starting with the assumption that the safe seats are unlikely to change hands.
| Possible Labor Wins | Possible Coalition Wins | Possible Green or Ind. wins | Hard to call |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Auburn Balmain Bankstown Bathurst Blacktown Blue Mountains Cabramatta Canterbury Camden Campbelltown Cessnock Charlestown Coogee East Hills Fairfield Gosford Granville Heathcote Heffron Keira Kiama Kogarah Lakemba Liverpool Londonderry Macquarie Fields Maitland Maroubra Marrickville Monaro Mount Druitt Mulgoa Oatley Parramatta Penrith Riverstone Rockdale Ryde Shellharbour Smithfield Strathfield Swansea The Entrance Toongabbie Wallsend Wollongong Wollondilly Wyong |
Albury Ballina Baulkham Hills Bega Burrinjuck Castle Hill Clarence Coffs Harbour Cronulla Davidson Drummoyne Epping Hawkesbury Hornsby Ku-ring-gai Lane Cove Lismore Manly Murray-Darling Murrumbidgee Myall Lakes North Shore Orange Oxley Pittwater South Coast Terrigal Tweed Upper Hunter Vaucluse Wagga Wagga Wakehurst Willoughby |
Northern Tablelands Port Macquarie Sydney Tamworth |
Barwon (NP?) Dubbo (Ind?) Goulburn (Lib?) Lake Macquarie (ALP?) Menai (ALP?) Miranda (ALP?) Newcastle (ALP?) Port Stephens (ALP?) |
| Total: 48 | Total: 33 | Total: 4 | Total: 8 |
The PollBludger is doing a live blog coverage.
Two polls are in today.
Galaxy poll has predicted 53 to 47 per cent in Labor’s favour. But perhaps the key finding from Galaxy is this election result is not about who you like the most, it is about who you hate the least. Iemma’s disapproval rating is 59 per cent, and Debnam’s is 67 per cent. It is possible that with these disapproval ratings and optional preferential voting, we will see a high vote cast for Greens and independents, with no transfer to the major parties. This might see a closer result with the Galaxy primary vote predictions of 38 per cent for the Coalition and 40 per cent for Labor. The PollBludger notes that Galaxy has a good track record in predicting outcomes.
ACNielsen paints a much more sanguine picture for Labor, with a prediction of 56 to 44 in Labor’s favour. The primary vote predictions from ACNielsen were 41 per cent for Labor and 36 per cent for the Coalition. The disapproval ratings were 33 per cent for Iemma and 51 per cent for Debnam.
In what might be a warning for the Federal election, ACNielsen found that industrial relations was the issue of most concern to voters. “The poll found 18 per cent of those surveyed listed industrial relations as the most important issue. The next most important was health, which was cited by 15 per cent of voters, followed by education with 14 per cent… public transport and roads were listed by 11 per cent of voters. The traditional state election issue of law and order was of least concern; 9 per cent rate it as a priority.” However, this result may simply be a case of brand identification: “Of those inclined to vote Labor tomorrow, one in three cited the industrial relations laws as their priority, compared with only one in 16 Coalition voters”.
On the betting market, the story has been pretty consistent for most of the campaign. Iemma has about 17 chances in 20 of becoming Premier following the election. Debnam has just three chances in 20. (You may need to hit the refresh/reload button on your browser to see the latest chart).
Today is your last chance to place a tip on the the NSW election:
I will close these tipping competitions at 8am 4pm tomorrow.
Update: I will be doing live reporting on the NSW election count.
