Of the doubtful seats on the ABC and AEC computers, Labor is ahead in four seats: Bowman (by 116 votes), Robertson (by 273 votes), Solomon (by 262 votes) and Flynn (by 635 votes).
Solomon could still go to the Coalition. If the remaining 1883 postal votes break 59-41 like the postals already counted, that would give the Coalition 338 votes. Similarly with the remaining pre-poll votes, if they break 53-47, the Coalition would pick up a further 147 votes.
There are fewer uncounted votes in Robertson. And if they break in the Coalition’s favour at the same rate as the votes already counted, then Labor should win this seat.
In Bowman, the postals and absentee votes have gone Labor’s way. Still, there are 2525 pre-poll votes to count. If these break 53-47, the Coalition will pick up 151 votes. If the remaining absentee votes go in the same way as those already counted, the Coalition’s haul will be whittled down by 64 votes. And the remaining postals could see it further reduced by 22 votes. This makes Bowman still far to close to call (but with a slight edge to Labor).
In Flynn, Labor is well ahead. (Note: while Flynn is not on the ABC doubtful seat list, nor is it counted in the 80 sears the ABC has given to Labor).
Herbert (Coalition currently ahead by 60 votes), is looking okay for the Coalition providing the remaining votes continue to break in its favour.
Swan (Coalition ahead by 239 votes) should also be safe for the Coalition if the votes continue to break in its way.
Dickson is beginning to look safe-ish for the Coalition, with a lead of 106 votes and everything breaking in its favour.
McEwan, is a tougher call. Particularly as the AEC website is saying that it has counted more postal and pre-poll votes than it has received. The Coalition lead is currently 150 votes, but the absentee votes are breaking 60-40 in Labor’s favour. This one could still go Labor’s way.
In La Trobe, the Coalition is ahead by 544 votes.
Nationally, Labor’s TPP vote share is down from 53.41 per cent on election night to 52.90 per cent this morning.
At this point in the count, I reckon Labor will ultimately win between 82 and 85 seats. In addition to the 80 seats it has in the bank, Labor should get Flynn and Robertson. It will probably get Bowman. It may get Solomon. And it has a long-shot chance with Swan, McEwan, Dickson and Herbert (but it could end up with none of this last group).
