Oz Politics Blog

One aspect of the Sawford formula is now trending downwards!

Update: The Sydney Futures Exchange 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures and Options contracts indicate that the market is betting on a further significant interest rate drop come the first Tuesday in November. At 13 October, the market has priced in at least a further 75 basis point cut in interest rates. Check out the SFE target rate tracker here.

Update 2: At the end of trading on 14 October, following the release of the economic security package, the market had reduced the size of the anticipated cut in interest rates in November from 75 basis points to 50 basis points.

Update 3: by 17 October, the market prediction was back to 75 basis points.

The Sawford formula states that if two or more of the unemployment, inflation and interest rates rise over a full, three-year electoral cycle, the government will lose. Conversely, if two or more fall the government will be returned.

I now have a page on the Sawford formula as we track towards the 2010 Federal election. It includes some pretty graphs.

The last general election was held on 24 November 2007 and the current House of Representatives first met on Tuesday 12 February 2008. Therefore, this House will expire on Friday 11 February 2011, and the next election for the House of Representatives must be held on or before Saturday 16 April 2011.

If a double dissolution election is not called, the most likely timing for the next Federal election is between August and October 2010. An election on or after August 2010 would allow for a concurrent half-Senate election. A November-December 2010 election would clash with the statutory requirement for a Victorian election on 27 November 2010. A January 2011 election would be in the middle of the holiday season. And a February-April 2011 election would clash with the statutory requirement for a New South Wales election on 26 March 2011.

You can read more here …