Oz Politics Blog

Yesterday saw some pre-poll votes counted.

The AEC now has the TPP result at 53.29 per cent in Labor’s favour. Antony’s computer now has the predicted outcome at 88 seats (up two from yesterday). The seats in doubt are: Bowman (Qld), Dickson (Qld), Herbert (Qld), La Trobe (Vic), Macarthur (NSW), McEwen (Vic), and Swan (WA). In all but Macarthur, Labor is ahead.

In Bennelong, Maxine is ahead by 2439 votes. She dropped some 50 votes when the first pre-poll votes were counted. My back of the envelope calculations suggest that Maxine would lose if Howard got something like more than 58 per cent of the absent, pre-poll and postal votes. In 2004, Howard got 57.6 per cent. If 2004 and the swing against Howard in booths offer any guidance, it will be close but Maxine should win.

Last night’s election ran largely as predicted. Australia has a new Government. Labor won, with an interim national two-party preferred vote share of 53.41 per cent.

There was a narrowing in the polls in the last week that appears to have carried through to the final result. I was predicting 6.7 per cent swing before the late polls last week suggested a narrowing; the result at the end of the night was 6.15 per cent. My guess of 88 seats for Labor was two up on the ABC’s predicted 86 seats at the end of counting last night.

The latest poll from Morgan (phone — 53.5 per cent) was the closest to picking the final result. Newspoll and Galaxy (at 52 per cent) were a little conservative. ACNielsen at 57 per cent had a bad hair day.

The ABC gave a fantastic election night coverage. Well done Antony!

Key government casualties include Mal Brough (Minister for Indigenous Affairs), and in all likelihood the Prime Minister, John Howard. The Special Minister of State, Gary Nairn, has lost his bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro.

Malcolm Turnbull won his seat of Wentworth.

Apology: but I must be at work early this morning, so you will have to wait until this evening for a full report.

Conflicted polls: two polls out last night tell a very different story. Galaxy, has the Coalition in line for a two seat majority, despite losing the two-party preferred vote 52 to 48 in Labor’s favour. ACNielsen, predicts annihilation for Howard with a two-party preferred vote of 57 to 43 in Labor’s favour if preferences are allocated according to what people reported or 56 to 44 if votes are allocated using preference flows from 2004.

I have not updated the other graphs. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest charts.

Yesterday, Labor released policies on the aged care workforce; disability funding; Kempsey hospital, GP super clinics for Mt Isa and the Riverina; and health clinics for defence families in Cairns, RAAF Edinburgh and Elizabeth North, and RAAF Amberley; and water recycling at Croydon Leisure Centre.

The Coalition released new policies on fiscal policy, hoons, vandals and violence and the NT.

Ouch: Coalition supporters have been caught handing out fake letters linking Labor to terrorists (DT, the Age).

Newspoll cumulative: The Australian has released another slice and dice of cumulative Newspolls by state, age, gender and rurality. Read Simon Jackman’s analysis.

Getup Senate poll: According to the Daily Telegraph, Getup has comissioned a Senate poll from Galaxy. The key message is that Green support is up to 13 per cent.

Razor gang: Expect a significant pruning for the public service should Rudd win the election (The Oz, SMH, CM).

Predictions: Professor Brian Costar believes Labor will win about 36 additional seats to give it 96 House of Representatives members.

Betting market: Portlandbet has opened a book on the exact number of seats Labor will win. The current odds are a little odd. The favourite is a Labor loss. The next favourite is a Labor win with 83 seats. The vigorish for this market was a little high for my liking (181 per cent).

Sportingbet has opened a book on Labor’s two-party preferred vote share. The favourtite with this book is 53 to 54 per cent. Using Antony’s calculator, this equates to something like 82 to 87 seats.

Yesterday, the Coalition released new policies on Tasmania, Tasmanian transport, urban water, and clean energy.

Labor released policies on obesity, a Medicare office in Belmont, an Innovative Regions Centre in Geelong, primary industry and Regional Policy.

Predictions: Graham Richardson has predicted that labor will win 20 seats (giving it 80 in total), with a six or seven per cent swing. (As an aside a six to seven seat swing would typically yield between 83 and 90 seats in total for Labor).

Polls: The Adelaide Advertiser has a poll in the seat of Boothby. The result was 52 to 48 in the Coalition’s favour. Boothby is on a margin of 5.4 per cent, so this result appears to be a significantly smaller swing to Rudd than elsewhere in the nation.

A Morgan poll of five WA marginal seats yields 50.5 to 49.5 in the Coalition’s favour.

And I missed this one yesterday. A McNair poll in North Sydney had Joe Hockey and Mike Bailey on 50-50 each.

Eligibility: The Coalition has raised questions about the eligibility to stand for Parliament of 13 Labor candidates. However, these claims are contested:

The Herald Sun last night confirmed the Liberal Party claims were based on scouring websites, and did not involve any checks or phone calls to the respective boards, authorities and agencies involved.

Advertising: The election electronic advertising ban kicks in from midnight tonight. But the ban on advertising does not cover direct mail, telephone campaigning or internet advertising. Expect the phone spam to begin.

Live election night site: James Young has a live election night site James also has a probability based election calculator on his site.