Bryan
· Thursday 20 September 2007
· 4:38 am
The betting market has recovered a little for the Coalition since Sunday. Since then, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking moved from 26.7 per cent to 33.0 per cent. What is harder to explain is why. Was it Tuesday’s Newspoll? Was it yesterday’s tax gaffe? Or is there another factor at play?
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Update from my inbox:
Hi Bryan,
It was almost certainly the Newspoll. The movements (largely? totally?) happened before the tax gaffe. Not the most rational responses, but anyway…
EconoMan
Betting market ·
Bryan
· Sunday 16 September 2007
· 9:45 am
The poor polls for the Coalition are showing up in the betting market. Last Sunday, the average from the five bookmakers I am tracking had the Coalition on a probability of 34.0 per cent of winning the next election. Today, that probability is down to 26.7 per cent.
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Betting market ·
Bryan
· Thursday 13 September 2007
· 6:47 am
The events of the past week have played out in the betting market. The average probability of a Coalition win at the 2007 Election from the five bookmakers I have been tracking is now 27.4 per cent. When I checked the market on 2 September it was almost ten points higher at 37.0 per cent.
| |
Centerbet |
IASBet |
SportsBet |
SportingBet |
SportsAcumen |
Average |
| 01-Jul-2007 |
49.6% |
48.7% |
48.4% |
48.7% |
47.7% |
48.6% |
| 08-Jul-2007 |
49.6% |
47.4% |
47.1% |
48.7% |
48.9% |
48.3% |
| 15-Jul-2007 |
48.7% |
47.4% |
45.8% |
48.7% |
47.6% |
47.6% |
| 19-Jul-2007 |
47.5% |
46.1% |
45.5% |
46.1% |
46.3% |
46.3% |
| 22-Jul-2007 |
44.3% |
44.2% |
43.2% |
46.1% |
43.6% |
44.3% |
| 25-Jul-2007 |
43.3% |
43.2% |
41.6% |
44.0% |
44.0% |
43.2% |
| 26-Jul-2007 |
42.3% |
42.3% |
41.6% |
42.3% |
42.3% |
42.2% |
| 29-Jul-2007 |
44.3% |
42.3% |
41.6% |
42.3% |
43.6% |
42.8% |
| 31-Jul-2007 |
42.3% |
42.3% |
41.0% |
41.0% |
41.8% |
41.7% |
| 03-Aug-2007 |
42.3% |
41.3% |
41.0% |
41.0% |
40.8% |
41.3% |
| 05-Aug-2007 |
42.3% |
41.3% |
39.4% |
41.0% |
40.8% |
41.0% |
| 09-Aug-2007 |
39.7% |
39.5% |
38.4% |
41.0% |
39.0% |
39.6% |
| 12-Aug-2007 |
37.3% |
36.3% |
37.2% |
38.8% |
37.0% |
37.3% |
| 19-Aug-2007 |
38.1% |
40.2% |
|
|
38.0% |
38.8% |
| 20-Aug-2007 |
38.1% |
41.0% |
38.6% |
37.5% |
38.6% |
38.8% |
| 28-Aug-2007 |
38.1% |
37.7% |
37.7% |
38.4% |
36.9% |
37.7% |
| 02-Sep-2007 |
36.6% |
36.6% |
37.7% |
38.0% |
36.1% |
37.0% |
| 07-Sep-2007 |
33.4% |
34.2% |
34.9% |
34.9% |
34.1% |
34.3% |
| 09-Sep-2007 |
33.4% |
33.3% |
34.9% |
34.9% |
33.3% |
34.0% |
| 10-Sep-2007 |
32.2% |
32.6% |
32.6% |
32.2% |
32.7% |
32.5% |
| 13-Sep-2007 |
25.7% |
27.7% |
|
30.7% |
25.6% |
27.4% |
Update 14 Sep 2007: the variability in yesterday’s market was very close to providing an arbitrage opportunity. Today the bookies odds are much more aligned. Overall, however, the average probability of a Coalition win is 27.0 per cent; down slightly on yesterday.
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Betting market ·
Bryan
· Sunday 2 September 2007
· 11:36 am
The “Scores” incident appears to be washing through the betting market with little more than a hiccup. The average probability of a Coalition win at the 2007 Election from the five bookmakers I have been tracking is now 37.0 per cent.
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Betting market ·
Bryan
· Tuesday 28 August 2007
· 7:35 pm
My apologies that the website languished for a couple of days while I was away from Canberra. I am back now!
The average probability of a Coalition win at the 2007 Election from the five bookmakers I have been tracking is 37.7 per cent.
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Betting market ·