Bryan
· Sunday 14 October 2007
· 6:47 am
The Coalition has been the beneficiary of the betting market over the past week. Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 31.6 per cent. Today it is 34.7 per cent.
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Betting market ·
Bryan
· Sunday 7 October 2007
· 7:53 am
The past week has seen the betting market take another small step in Labor’s favour. Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 33.9 per cent. Today it is 31.6 per cent.
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Betting market ·
Bryan
· Sunday 30 September 2007
· 7:54 am
Compared with the previous fortnight, there has not been much movement in the past week. Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 34.9 per cent. Today it is 33.9 per cent.
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Betting market ·
Bryan
· Sunday 23 September 2007
· 7:08 am
The betting market has recovered a little for the Coalition since last Sunday. Since then, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking moved from 26.7 per cent to 34.9 per cent. If the same 2007 Federal election were repeated 20 times, the most likely outcome would see John Howard win 7 elections and Kevin Rudd win 13. Last Sunday it was 5 and 15 respectively.
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Betting market ·
Bryan
· Thursday 20 September 2007
· 5:11 am
While the betting market stills sees the possibility of a 27 October 2007 election, the last Saturday of November or the first Saturday of December are firming as the favourites.
| Date |
Odds |
Probability |
| October 27th |
$4.00 |
16% |
| November 3rd |
$7.50 |
8% |
| November 10th |
$6.00 |
10% |
| November 17th |
$4.50 |
14% |
| November 24th |
$3.50 |
18% |
| December 1st |
$3.75 |
17% |
| December 8th |
$9.00 |
7% |
| December 15th |
$11.00 |
6% |
| December 22nd |
$81.00 |
1% |
| December 29th |
$41.00 |
2% |
| Any Saturday during January or beyond |
$31.00 |
2% |
I remain convinced that the 24 November to 8 December window is the most likely timing.
A 27 October 2007 election would need to be called by next Monday. I don’t think that will happen.
Betting market · Election 2007 ·