Oz Politics Blog

Yesterday, there were no new policies on Labor’s website.

The Coalition had no new policies listed on its website.

Betting market: Being a Sunday, it is time to look at the betting markets (perhaps for the last time). Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 30.6 per cent. This morning it was 20.9 per cent.

The betting market graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Galaxy marginal seat poll: Galaxy polled 4000 voters in twenty marginal seats between 11 and 15 November. The Poll Bludger has a graphic of the results here. If you extrapolate the marginal seat results to the state (not exactly kosher) and drop them into Antony’s calculator, it yields 83 seats for Labor. This result is more conservative than yesterday’s Newspoll of marginal seats, which gave us a prediction of 90 seats.

ERMS poll: in today’s Sunday Examiner suggests Labor will pick-up all five Tasmanian seats.

Taverner poll of mortgage holders: The SMH and Age reported on a Taverner poll of mortgage payers which found them split 57-43 in Labor’s favour. Apparently, 34 per cent of households are mortgage payers. According to the papers, this result is a reversal of a similar poll before the 2004 election.

PM Rudd’s first steps: The SMH reported that the first steps of Prime Minister Rudd would be,

1. Ratify the Kyoto Protocol. “We need to make sure we are around the negotiating table immediately … for the next round of commitments on reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.”
2. Start immediately to negotiate with the states on reform of hospital practices. “That is of crucial importance - we’ve got $2.5billion on the table but we’ll need to frame a co-operative agreement around performance measures.”
3. Begin the roll-out of the high-speed broadband network, along with connections to schools. In tandem, open up tenders for the $1 billion school computer program.
4. “Hit the ground running” with the implementation of the $2.5 billion program to upgrade trades training centres in secondary schools. “I went back to C block [the technical faculty] at [his old school] Nambour High the other day - it hadn’t changed since I was there. It was like walking into a museum.”
5. Begin negotiations with the Americans and Iraqis for the staged withdrawal by mid next year of Australian combat troops. “I have been very blunt with President Bush … I have a no-surprises policy when it comes to these things.”

Graph of the day: The most recent data points from each of the opinion poll series are all well into Labor territory. The implied predictions range from 82 seats for Labor through to 134 seats for Labor. If you drop the bottom and top prediction, we have four of the six poll series in a tight band from 54 to 56 per cent for Labor, with an implied seats haul in the range from 87 to 96 seats.

Yesterday, Labor announced new policies on the arts and a Mirrabooka Multicultural Centre.

The Coalition made statements on veterans, and a new ABC television channel for children.

Tactics: According to Glenn Milne, ” Labor will use the last two weeks of the election to personally target Prime Minister John Howard. The change in tactics follows definitive internal research showing voters are already factoring Mr Howard out of the election because of his announcement that he’ll retire during the next term if he wins.”

Wentworth: News commissioned a galaxy poll of 800 voters in Malcolm Turnbull’s Sydney seat of Wentworth. The headline prediction was a 50-50 tie. Turnbull’s primary vote prediction was 44 per cent. His Labor opponent is on 36 per cent. The Greens are on 14 per cent.

SA focus groups: “A Sunday Mail, focus group interview with swinging Kingston voters on Thursday, found a fear of the unknown in the Government’s most marginal seat when it came to voting for Mr Rudd. Some of those interviewed by Galaxy Research accused Mr Rudd of coming across as a “little too polished” and “saying what people want to hear”, and they were sceptical about his ability to deliver.”

Betting markets: Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 27.9 per cent. This morning it was 30.2 per cent.

The betting market graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

We are half way! Yesterday was the 20th day in the election campaign. We have twenty days to go until the tally.

There were no new policy statements on the Coalition website.

As far as I can tell, there were no new policy statements on Labor’s website.

Vale Peter Andren: “Long serving federal independent MP Peter Andren has died after being diagnosed earlier this year with inoperable pancreatic cancer. He was 61″ (The Age).

Electorate polls: the Sunday Telegraph reported a Galaxy poll (N=800) of the Prime Minister’s seat of Bennelong. “Ms McKew [is] poised for victory with 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, compared to 48 per cent for Mr Howard.”

Sorry: According to the SMH, Peter Garrett said “I accept responsibility for cracking a joke at the wrong time and place,” and it was “probably a dumb thing to have done”. Garrett’s original sin was to joke with radio host Steve Price that once elected, Labor would ditch its conservative “me-too” policies and do what ever it liked.

Today, Glenn Milne argued that the Garrett gag could cost Labor the election. Apparently, “marginal-seat focus groups reveal that one of the key reasons voters are considering voting for Mr Rudd is his “me too” policy approach to the Federal Government and Prime Minister John Howard.” Milne also noted, “Mr Rudd yesterday said that he would not go down the road of wholesale policy changes if elected.”

Betting markets: Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 28.6 per cent. This morning it was 27.9 per cent.

The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Yesterday was the thirteenth full day of the official election campaign. We have just under four weeks until the election.

Labor announced a policy to help renters fight climate change.

There were no new policy announcements on the Coalition website.

Polls: The Sunday Mail comissioned Galaxy to poll Wayne Swan’s relatively safe Labor seat of Lilley. Galaxy predicted that Swan would win the seat with 59 per cent of the primary vote. Liberal candidate Scott McConnell polled 32 per cent, the Greens’ Simon Kean-Hammerson 7 per cent and others 2 per cent. No sample size was given for the poll.

Simon Jackman has an interesting piece on polling methodology.

Betting markets: As Jason Koutsoukis noted, the betting markets have taken a turn against the Coalition in recent days. Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 42.7 per cent. This morning it was 28.6 per cent.

And if you spotted it, we have an arbitrage opportunity. If you bet $1000, placing $280 on the Coalition with SportsAcumen, and $720 on Labor with SportingBet, you would win a guaranteed $1008 (a net gain of $8). I suspect that by the time you read this, the arbitrage opportunity will have gone.

The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

On the lighter side: Yesterday delivered what might become the most memorable line of the 2007 election campaign: “Our fear campaign is based on fact”.

And I would love to know what this has to do with an election campaign: Shadow Treasurer Wayne Swan giving tips on how to reduce your shopping bill. Nothing partisan. All perfectly sensible. It is just not much to do with an election.

Yesterday, neither side announced new policies.

Shane Guley resigned as the ALP candidate for Maranoa after allegations of unruly past union behaviour. (For the next hour or two you might be able to visit the Shane Guley page on the ALP website).

Things got a bit rowdy at yesterday’s Eastwood granny smith apple festival when it was swamped by supporters of Prime Minister John Howard and Labor challenger Maxine McKew.

Peter Martin has constructed a spendometer for the first week of campaigning. His finding (including promises before the campaign): the Coalition has committed $43.718 billion and Labor $48.764 billion.

According to the Poll Bludger, a Westpoll of three Perth marginal seats “has the Liberals holding firm in … Stirling and Hasluck and set to win Cowan from Labor with a 5 per cent swing”. The PB went on to say, “this is the second electorate-level poll Westpoll has conducted, and both have shown the Liberals travelling much better in these three seats than Westpoll’s regular statewide polling would suggest”.

The betting market over the first week of campaigning has staged a remarkable recovery for the Coalition. (You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest chart).

Today, the Poll Bludger analysed post federal election debates and discovered the incumbent only won two out of nine.

I suspect both leaders are bunkered down in preparation for tonight’s election debate. Possum Pollytics has some thoughts on the debating strategy that will be adopted tonight. Upper House also has thoughts on how to make the worm rise.