Oz Politics Blog

It’s no April fools joke. Kevin Rudd is seriously ahead in the March aggregated polling.

Around 6800 people were polled during March. Of those, 50 per cent said they would give their primary vote to Kevin Rudd’s Labor. If an election had been held in March, Rudd would have received 60 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. Team Howard was left languishing on 34.9 per cent of the primary vote.

Rudd has added ten points to Labor’s primary vote in the past four months. The Coalition primary vote has fallen 6 points and its TPP vote has fallen eight points over the same period. It is a spectacular honeymoon for the new Opposition Leader by any measure. He is picking up votes from those to both the right and left of Labor.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

During February 2007, almost 8000 people were polled across three Morgan polls, two Newspolls and one ACNielsen poll. The headline prediction was a national two-party preferred vote share for Labor of 57.2 per cent, leaving 42.8 per cent for the Coalition. On the primary votes, Labor got a predicted 47.6 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote prediction was 37.4 per cent.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The electorate’s romance with Rudd that blossomed in December 2006 showed no signs of fading in January 2007. Howard will be hoping this is nothing more than summer love.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

This month we had two polls prior to Rudd’s ascention and three since, although 53 per cent of those polled were before the elevation This month’s aggregation had its own internal serendipity: Labor’s primary vote prediction was the same as the Coalition’s two-party preferred prediciton — 44.4 per cent. The Coalition’s predicted primary vote prediction was 38.6 per cent.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Notwithstanding a rouge Newspoll during the month, Labor is well ahead in the aggregated two-party preferred voting prediction for November 2006. This latest aggregation provides an ironic backdrop to the Rudd v Beazley leadership contest.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.