Oz Politics Blog

The Age and SMH have ACNielsen’s latest poll results. The headline prediction is a national two-party preferred vote share of 56 to.44 in Labor’s favour.

This result from ACNielsen is very much “steady as she goes”. It is consistent with two of the other three major pollsters.

MG began her analysis of today’s polls with this observation …

A POINT must come when John Howard leaps out of the aeroplane and hopes that a miracle opens the parachute. The polls, it seems, are not going to provide any greater security before the jump.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs. Some 35 graphs were updated this morning.

Today’s fairfax press (SMH, Age) reported on the 6 monthly aggregation from ACNielsen.

According to Phillip Coorey in the SMH,

JOHN HOWARD and nine of his ministers would be among the 44 Coalition MPs to lose their seats at this year’s election under a worst-case scenario based on the latest six-month average of the Herald/Nielsen Poll.

In NSW alone, the Coalition would lose 12 seats while in Queensland it could lose 16, the exact number of seats Labor needs to win to govern in its own right.

The state-by-state swings to Labor over the 2004 election result were 9.9 per cent in new South Wales, 7.9 per cent in Victoria, 12.3 per cent in Queensland, 14.9 per cent in South Australia and the Northern Territory, and 5 per cent in Western Australia. It’s all grist for Antony Green’s calculator, which predicted Labor with 106 seats.

According to the SMH, tomorrow’s ACNielsen has the headline two-party preferred vote share prediction of 57 per cent for Labor and 43 per cent for the Coalition.

In previous election years, it was the September ACNielsen poll that suggested the Coalition was on track for an election win. But September is not that turning point in 2007. This result, like almost every poll from every pollster this year, points to a Labor landslide result.

The most recent poll from each of the pollsters were:

• ACNielsen — 57 to 43
• Galaxy — 57 to 43
• Morgan — 60 to 40
• Newspoll — 59 to 41

This gives an average of 58.25 for Labor and 41.75 per cent for the Coalition. Plug these numbers into the election calculator and see what you get.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Today’s Age and SMH reported on the latest ACNielsen poll. The headline prediction was that were an election held, Labor would win 55 per cent of the two-party preferred vote and the Coalition 45 per cent: a landslide win for Labor. The primary vote predictions were 41 per cent for the Coalition and 46 per cent for Labor.

Some mainstream media commentators have focused on the 3 point movement on the previous ACNielsen poll. My suspicion is that the previous poll was on the pessimistic side for the Government, and this poll represents a return to normal.

Of note, since March 2007 Morgan, ACNielsen and Newspoll have been tracking very similar trajectories. If we cast that trajectory forward, and assuming the Coalition continues to improve its standing at the same rate it has been for some months now, it would see Howard enter into a mid-November election with the polls somewhere between 52 to 48 and 53 to 47 in Labor’s favour.

In her report, Michelle Grattan provided state-by-state breakdowns. Although they are interesting, they have been produced from small samples and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

The Nielsen poll shows much variation between states. Labor leads on a two-party basis 62-38 per cent in South Australia, 57-43 per cent in Queensland, 56-44 per cent in NSW, and 51-49 per cent in Victoria. In Western Australia Labor trails 44-56 per cent. The WA finding is in contrast to a Westpoll last week showing support surging for Labor.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The latest ACNielsen is on message with an all too familiar story. The headline prediction is a national two party preferred vote of 58 per cent for Labor and 42 per cent for the Coalition. This is pretty well a flat line since April. Of note, Labor is getting around 75 per cent of the preference votes. At recent elections it has been around 60 percent. If we readjust the preference flows, the TPP prediction would be 56 to 44 in Labor’s favour, but there is no significant change to the flat line trend.

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