Oz Politics Blog

Today’s Australian reported on the latest Newspoll results (link-1, link-2). The headline two-party preferred vote is steady at 55 to 45 in Labor’s favour.

While there was no bounce for the new Opposition Leader in voting preferences, Malcolm Turnbull opened well in the attitudinal polling.

In the first Newspoll survey to measure voter satisfaction with his job as Opposition Leader, Mr Turnbull hit 50 per cent — 10 points higher than predecessor Brendan Nelson’s high of 40 per cent and nine higher than Mr Rudd’s when he became Labor leader in December 2006.

Indeed, the Liberal leader’s beginning in Newspoll is a better start than the past five Opposition leaders: Simon Crean, Mark Latham, Kim Beazley, Mr Rudd and Dr Nelson.

The Prime Minister also improved his standing in the attitudinal polling.

Satisfaction with Mr Rudd, which had fallen steadily in the past two months, has sharply reversed, rising six percentage points to 56 per cent.

According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, a spike in dissatisfaction with Mr Rudd’s performance has also been reversed, falling from a record 37 per cent three weeks ago to 32 per cent.

The Greens were the other beneficiary of today’s Newspoll.

… a big jump in primary vote for the Greens, from 10 to 13 per cent, has put them at a Newspoll high …

Graphs here.

One aspect of the Sawford formula is now trending downwards!

Update: The Sydney Futures Exchange 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures and Options contracts indicate that the market is betting on a further significant interest rate drop come the first Tuesday in November. At 13 October, the market has priced in at least a further 75 basis point cut in interest rates. Check out the SFE target rate tracker here.

Update 2: At the end of trading on 14 October, following the release of the economic security package, the market had reduced the size of the anticipated cut in interest rates in November from 75 basis points to 50 basis points.

Update 3: by 17 October, the market prediction was back to 75 basis points.

I have played with the historical Newspoll primary vote data to construct a two-party preferred (TPP) vote estimate for the past twenty years. The Newspoll site only has TPP estimates for every poll since late 2002. For the earlier data points, where there was a Newspoll TPP estimate, I have used that estimate; otherwise I have prepared my own mix of herbs and spices to cook one up.

I put the series through a 31-term Henderson moving average filter to identify the underlying trend. The key finding: for almost two years, Rudd’s Labor team has been enjoying an unusually high and sustained level of voter support compared with any government (or opposition) over the past twenty years. Electorally, Rudd (in the first year of his first term) is more popular than Howard or Keating.

The unfiltered series and my usual 13-term Henderson moving average can be found on the polls page.

In case you were wondering, the orange vertical lines mark election dates.

Graphs here.