Newspoll 55-45; ACNielsen 52-48 in Labor’s favour
Typically, large poll bounces following the change of an opposition leader require three things:
- an unpopular government;
- an unpopular outgoing opposition leader; and
- a new opposition leader that excites.
In the past, large bounces associated with incoming opposition leaders met these criteria (for example, when Rudd replaced Beazley Mk II against the backdrop of the last year of the Howard Government).
The Brendan Nelson to Malcolm Turnbull change does not satisfy all of the criteria for a large poll bounce. Unquestionably, Nelson was an unpopular outgoing opposition leader. It is arguable that Turnbull is a new opposition leader that excites. But Rudd and his government are a long way from being an unpopular.
Not surprisingly, therefore, today’s bounce associated with the ascension of Turnbull is small: three two-party preferred percentage points with ACNielsen, and one point with Newspoll (which is not statistically significant).
Interestingly, the largest bounce appears to have occurred against ACNielsen’s attitudinal question on who would be your preferred prime minister.
The full set of graphs will become available here, when the full polling results are released.