Oz Politics Blog

Yesterday, the Coalition released policies on transport in NSW, Vic, and Qld. And a late link from the day before for critical care at Darwin Hospital.

Labor had on its website new policies on making Darwin and Palmerston suburbs safer communities, Low Tax First Home Saver Accounts, Northern Australia and the Gascoyne Irrigation Pipeline Project. The following appears to be new on the site, but it is dated 4 Octovber: Manufacturing Centre In Northern Adelaide. (As an aside, the Labor policy site is getting very large and difficult to navigate - spotting new policy announcements is a challenge).

Senate tickets: The Australian Electoral Commission released the above-the-line Senate voting tickets yesterday. The Poll Bludger and friends are discussing the politics and policy that inform ticket development.

I am assuming that Antony Green has written a Senate Calculator. If he does not release one soon, I will dust off my calculator from the 2004 election. Update: Antony’s Senate calculators are up.

Galaxy: Today, the News stable released the latest poll results from 1010 voters over 2 - 4 November. The headline prediction was 54 to 46 per cent in Labor’s favour. On the primary votes, Labor got 45 per cent and the Coalition 42.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Paul Kelly discussed Howard’s tactical change in the campaign, in the lead up to this week’s decision by the Reserve Bank on interest rates.

We are half way! Yesterday was the 20th day in the election campaign. We have twenty days to go until the tally.

There were no new policy statements on the Coalition website.

As far as I can tell, there were no new policy statements on Labor’s website.

Vale Peter Andren: “Long serving federal independent MP Peter Andren has died after being diagnosed earlier this year with inoperable pancreatic cancer. He was 61″ (The Age).

Electorate polls: the Sunday Telegraph reported a Galaxy poll (N=800) of the Prime Minister’s seat of Bennelong. “Ms McKew [is] poised for victory with 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, compared to 48 per cent for Mr Howard.”

Sorry: According to the SMH, Peter Garrett said “I accept responsibility for cracking a joke at the wrong time and place,” and it was “probably a dumb thing to have done”. Garrett’s original sin was to joke with radio host Steve Price that once elected, Labor would ditch its conservative “me-too” policies and do what ever it liked.

Today, Glenn Milne argued that the Garrett gag could cost Labor the election. Apparently, “marginal-seat focus groups reveal that one of the key reasons voters are considering voting for Mr Rudd is his “me too” policy approach to the Federal Government and Prime Minister John Howard.” Milne also noted, “Mr Rudd yesterday said that he would not go down the road of wholesale policy changes if elected.”

Betting markets: Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 28.6 per cent. This morning it was 27.9 per cent.

The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Yesterday was the 19th full day in the election campaign. There are twenty one days to until the election tally on the eveneing of 24 November 2007.

Labor made statements on the Northern Rivers growth corridor, health and education support for Melbourne’s western suburbs, Indigenous customary law and water desalination.

There were no new policy statements on the Coalition website.

Candidates: The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) released the list of candidates for the House of Representatives and the Senate. It was amusing to see Australia’s most prolific unsuccessful candidate — Marcus Aussie-Stone — up for election in Joe Hockey’s seat of North Sydney.

Political parties must lodge their above-the-line party voting tickets with the AEC by noon today if they wish to have a box above the line on the ballot paper. Once these tickets are published, I am sure there will be a number of Senate calculators on the net.

Morgan released poll results for last weekend. The headline prediction was 42.5 per cent for the Coalition and 57.5 per cent for Labor.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Electorate polls: The Herald Sun published an internal poll for Deakin in Victoria (N=314, Labor=55, Coalition=45, Swing=10).

The Australian, published a marginal seat poll for Queensland, NSW, Victoria and South Australia (N=3500) which Dennis Shanahan interpreted as suggesting “the extent of the Coalition’s losses will be between eight seats — which would allow it to easily retain government — and 22 seats, a six-seat win to Labor”. The analysis from Sol Lebovic is worth reading.

October aggregated: The Morgan poll was the last opinion poll for October. The weighted aggregation of all polls for October, with a combined sample in excess of 13,000 voters, yeilded a predicted vote share for Labor of 55.8 per cent. The Coalition had 44.2 per cent.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Poll trend: The next graph charts a weekly poll trend based on the average of Morgan (face-to-face). ACNielsen and Newspoll. The weekly averages are then smoothed with a 13-term Henderson moving average. The current poll trend is 44.4 per cent for the Coalition and 55.6 per cent for Labor.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Yesterday was the 18th full day in the election campaign. Twenty-two days remain until the election tally on the evening of 24 November. (In case you have been wondering, Sunday will be the half way point).

The Coalition made a policy statement on family emergency medical centres.

Labor made policy statements on older Australians, people with disabilities and carers, national travel concessions for older Australians, water and sanitation for developing countries and roads in southern Tasmania.

Interest rates: According to Peter Martin, “A cut in US interest rates, a surge in the world oil price and a continuing boom in Australian consumer spending have combined to push the Australian dollar through 93 US cents and push the Australian share market to a new record high, making next week’s hike in local interest rates a certainty.”

Westpac is predicting back-to-back interest rate rises in November and December, and another early in the new year.

Election costs: The Treasury and the Department of Finance and Administration have been releasing formal election costings on the election commitments from both Labor and the Coalition.

Peter Martin estimated the 2007 election campaign has become the most expensive in Australia’s history.

Independent tallies put the Coalition and Labor neck and neck, each promising around $44 billion since the campaign began, with perhaps another $10 billion each before that.

Those totals would bring the total offered per voter up to $3,000, making this by far the most expensive election campaign in Australian history.

The last campaign, in 2004 produced promises worth only $1,000 per voter.

ACNielsen released the findings from a poll of 1476 people between Monday and Wednesday this week. The more-of-the-same poll, predicted that Labor would get 55 per cent of the two party preferred vote, and the Coalition would get 45 per cent. Dropping those numbers into Antony’s Calculator, yielded a prediction of 92 seats for Labor, 56 seats for the Coalition, and two independents.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Betting markets: Sportingbet Australia advised yesterday that “the Government odds of winning have gone backwards since the leaders’ debate, although there has been a slight improvement in their chances over the past few days. Labor’s odds are now $1.38 with the Coalition wobbling out to $3.05.”

What a strange week it has been. On Monday we saw a little too much of Andrew Quah. Tuesday gave us change from both sides on climate change. And yesterday, the Health Minister was late for the televised debate with his opposite number.

Newspoll released an aggregation of its past two polls in today’s Australian. The aggregation was sliced and diced by state, gender, age and city v country. You can drop the figures into Antony’s calculator. You can read what Dennis Shanahan had to say. And you can browse Possum’s graphs.

Nominations close at 12 noon today. Go to the AEC if you want to stand for Parliament. At 12 noon tomorrow, the AEC will tell us who has thrown their hat into the ring.

Yesterday, Labor made policy statements on public hospitals, energy, coal v nuclear, petrol prices, broadband, roads at Port Headland, and disability funding.

The Coalition made statements on trade, nurse practitioners, and training new doctors.

Predictions: The Poll Bludger predicted an overall outcome of around 84 seats for Labor in a chamber of 150, against 64 for the Coalition.

Mumble predicted that Labor would win 90 seats.

You can leave your prediction at the election tipping competition.