Oz Politics Blog

Yesterday was the 31st day in the formal campaign.

The Coalition had new policies on the fishing industry, aviation, and agriculture. The Coalition also released a nine point plan to protect and grow Australia.

Labor had its campaign launch yesterday. Labor’s new policy announcements included a clean energy plan and education (1, 2, 3 and 4).

Predictions: Over at the Poll Budger, Geoff Lambert predicted that Labor would win 97 seats in the upcoming election.

Is 16 a big number or a small number? One of my brothers said to me the other day that 16 seats was a big mountain for Rudd to climb, and that consequently he doubted there would be a change of government. A number of people have expressed a similar sentiment to me since then.

However, there is a maxim in Australian politics that says, “when the swing is on, the swing is on”. Typically, when governments have changed, there has been a large two-party preferred swing and a large number of seats have changed hands. In 1996, the Coalition improved its position by 29 seats (in a House of 148 seats). In 1983, Labor improved its position by 24 seats (in the smaller 125 seat House of Representatives). And in 1975, The Coalition gained 30 seats in a House of 127 seats). (You can see party representation in the House here.)

In this context, it is worth noting that in the lead up to the 2007 election most commentators in the on-line psephological community are predicting a change of government with a sizable swing to Labor. The most conservative commentator has Labor winning eight more seats than the needed 16. At the other end of the spectrum, Geoff Lambert believes Labor will more than double the necessary 16 seat gain.

Election tipping competition: What is your prediction for the 2007 election?

Yesterday was the 30th day in the formal campaign.

Labor announced policies on green precincts, solar schools and homes, an Asia Pacific centre for civil-military cooperation, the Pine Rivers growth corridor, five projects on the Bruce Highway in Caboolture and the Sunshine Coast and improved services and benefits for veterans. Today, Labor will have its campaign launch.

The Coalition had no new policies listed on its website.

Polls: Morgan released its Senate polling. As the following table shows, the most likely outcome is a Senate where neither Labor nor the Coalition has an absolute majority of seats (39 of the 76 seats). The Greens are likely to hold the balance of power.

Nomination question: The Australian Constitution does not allow anyone who holds “any office of profit under the Crown” to stand for Parliament (section 44(iv)). Today’s SMH suggested that Malcolm Turnbull’s Labor opponent, George Newhouse, did not resign his position as a paid member of the state’s consumer disputes tribunal before lodging his nomination for the seat of Wentworth. Newhouse’s letter of resignation is undated, and it appears to have been received after nominations closed. If Newhouse wins Wentworth, and there is a successful legal challenge to the validity of his nomination, I expect there would be a by-election in Wentworth.

In 1992, Philip Cleary was elected to the seat of Wills at a by-election following Bob Hawke’s resignation. Cleary’s election was declared invalid because he was an officer of the Education Department of Victoria at the time.

The other trap for candidates is dual citizenship. Section 44 of the Constitution also prevents anyone from being elected who “is under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power, or is a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power” (see Sue v Hill 1999).

Retirement plans: the Prime Minister outlined his retirement plans should the Coalition win the election: “it would not be for at least 18 months or two years” before the Prime Minister hands over the leadership to his deputy, Peter Costello (CM).

Yesterday was the Coalition’s campaign launch. The Coalition announced policies on a refundable tax rebate of 40 per cent for education expenses, alternative fuels, skills development for teachers of students with a disability, measures to help young people buy a home, improving financial literacy, child care and support for carers.

Labor announced new policies for a Cairns multi-sport stadium, helping local communities protect the Australian coastline, better health services in Port Stephens and the Hunter, free health and dental care for defence families, a Fair Work Australia office for Western Sydney, transport upgrades in Western NSW, and a Rockhampton to Gladstone water pipeline.

Polls: A poll of 300 people in the Northern Star found Labor just ahead in the NSW seat of Page (44 to 41 on the primary votes). Thanks to Isaac for the tip.

The NT News reported that Solomon is too close to call, based on unsighted internal Labor Party polling.

Predictions: Possums Pollytics predicts that on the current phone poll trends, Labor would win the election with 54.9 per cent oif the national two-party preferred vote. On Antony’s calculator, that would give Labor around 92 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

Betting markets: The latest media release from SportingBet Australia: ‘Week four of the campaign has gone to Howard in the betting markets, despite the interest rate rise. Michael Sullivan, who is CEO of … Sportingbet Australia, says that 77% of bets had been for the Coalition during week four. “The first five days of the campaign went to Howard in a post-election-call boost, but since then the Coalition hasn’t been able to take a dollar. That is until this week,” he said. “It hasn’t been huge bets, but it’s been consistent for the Coalition”’

Graph of the day: Yesterday I was asked if the polls had ever previously been as flat and unmoving as they are at the moment. Answer: The Keating v Howard competition of 1995-1996 was the last time Federally.

Newspoll: Dennis in the Australian reported the latest Newspoll. The headline prediction was a national two party vote share for Labor of 55 per cent, compared with 45 percent for the Coalition. According to Antony’s calculator, if this result was replicated at the 2007 election, Labor would win around 94 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Other polls: The Daily Telegraph reported on a poll study (N=200) which had Howard and McKew neck-and neck.

The Townsville Bulletin reported a poll (N=209) which would see Labor win the seat of Herbert with 53 per cent of the two-party preferred vote; a nine per cent swing.

Yesterday, the Coalition had no new policies listed on its website.

Labor had no new policies listed on its website.

This week, The Coalition campaign launch is in Brisbane today. Labor’s campaign launch will also be in Brisbane, on Wednesday. (The Age)

Graph of the day: The most recent data points from each of the opinion poll series are all well into Labor territory. The implied predictions range from 82 seats for Labor through to 134 seats for Labor. If you drop the bottom and top prediction, we have four of the six poll series in a tight band from 54 to 56 per cent for Labor, with an implied seats haul in the range from 87 to 96 seats.

Yesterday, Labor announced new policies on the arts and a Mirrabooka Multicultural Centre.

The Coalition made statements on veterans, and a new ABC television channel for children.

Tactics: According to Glenn Milne, ” Labor will use the last two weeks of the election to personally target Prime Minister John Howard. The change in tactics follows definitive internal research showing voters are already factoring Mr Howard out of the election because of his announcement that he’ll retire during the next term if he wins.”

Wentworth: News commissioned a galaxy poll of 800 voters in Malcolm Turnbull’s Sydney seat of Wentworth. The headline prediction was a 50-50 tie. Turnbull’s primary vote prediction was 44 per cent. His Labor opponent is on 36 per cent. The Greens are on 14 per cent.

SA focus groups: “A Sunday Mail, focus group interview with swinging Kingston voters on Thursday, found a fear of the unknown in the Government’s most marginal seat when it came to voting for Mr Rudd. Some of those interviewed by Galaxy Research accused Mr Rudd of coming across as a “little too polished” and “saying what people want to hear”, and they were sceptical about his ability to deliver.”

Betting markets: Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 27.9 per cent. This morning it was 30.2 per cent.

The betting market graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.