Counting …
Yesterday saw some pre-poll votes counted.
The AEC now has the TPP result at 53.29 per cent in Labor’s favour. Antony’s computer now has the predicted outcome at 88 seats (up two from yesterday). The seats in doubt are: Bowman (Qld), Dickson (Qld), Herbert (Qld), La Trobe (Vic), Macarthur (NSW), McEwen (Vic), and Swan (WA). In all but Macarthur, Labor is ahead.
In Bennelong, Maxine is ahead by 2439 votes. She dropped some 50 votes when the first pre-poll votes were counted. My back of the envelope calculations suggest that Maxine would lose if Howard got something like more than 58 per cent of the absent, pre-poll and postal votes. In 2004, Howard got 57.6 per cent. If 2004 and the swing against Howard in booths offer any guidance, it will be close but Maxine should win.