Largely as predicted
Last night’s election ran largely as predicted. Australia has a new Government. Labor won, with an interim national two-party preferred vote share of 53.41 per cent.
There was a narrowing in the polls in the last week that appears to have carried through to the final result. I was predicting 6.7 per cent swing before the late polls last week suggested a narrowing; the result at the end of the night was 6.15 per cent. My guess of 88 seats for Labor was two up on the ABC’s predicted 86 seats at the end of counting last night.
The latest poll from Morgan (phone — 53.5 per cent) was the closest to picking the final result. Newspoll and Galaxy (at 52 per cent) were a little conservative. ACNielsen at 57 per cent had a bad hair day.
The ABC gave a fantastic election night coverage. Well done Antony!
Key government casualties include Mal Brough (Minister for Indigenous Affairs), and in all likelihood the Prime Minister, John Howard. The Special Minister of State, Gary Nairn, has lost his bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro.
Malcolm Turnbull won his seat of Wentworth.