Day 38 report
Yesterday, Labor released policies on the aged care workforce; disability funding; Kempsey hospital, GP super clinics for Mt Isa and the Riverina; and health clinics for defence families in Cairns, RAAF Edinburgh and Elizabeth North, and RAAF Amberley; and water recycling at Croydon Leisure Centre.
The Coalition released new policies on fiscal policy, hoons, vandals and violence and the NT.
Ouch: Coalition supporters have been caught handing out fake letters linking Labor to terrorists (DT, the Age).
Newspoll cumulative: The Australian has released another slice and dice of cumulative Newspolls by state, age, gender and rurality. Read Simon Jackman’s analysis.
Getup Senate poll: According to the Daily Telegraph, Getup has comissioned a Senate poll from Galaxy. The key message is that Green support is up to 13 per cent.
Razor gang: Expect a significant pruning for the public service should Rudd win the election (The Oz, SMH, CM).
Predictions: Professor Brian Costar believes Labor will win about 36 additional seats to give it 96 House of Representatives members.
Betting market: Portlandbet has opened a book on the exact number of seats Labor will win. The current odds are a little odd. The favourite is a Labor loss. The next favourite is a Labor win with 83 seats. The vigorish for this market was a little high for my liking (181 per cent).
| Total Labor seats | Odds | Probability |
| 73 or less | $4.25 | 12.9% |
| 74 | $67.00 | 0.8% |
| 75 | $41.00 | 1.3% |
| 76 | $29.00 | 1.9% |
| 77 | $19.00 | 2.9% |
| 78 | $16.00 | 3.4% |
| 79 | $15.00 | 3.7% |
| 80 | $11.00 | 5.0% |
| 81 | $9.00 | 6.1% |
| 82 | $8.50 | 6.5% |
| 83 | $8.00 | 6.9% |
| 84 | $8.50 | 6.5% |
| 85 | $9.00 | 6.1% |
| 86 | $9.00 | 6.1% |
| 87 | $11.00 | 5.0% |
| 88 | $12.00 | 4.6% |
| 89 | $13.00 | 4.2% |
| 90 | $15.00 | 3.7% |
| 91 | $17.00 | 3.2% |
| 92 | $26.00 | 2.1% |
| 93 | $41.00 | 1.3% |
| 94 | $51.00 | 1.1% |
| 95 | $67.00 | 0.8% |
| 96 | $81.00 | 0.7% |
| 97 | $81.00 | 0.7% |
| 98 | $101.00 | 0.5% |
| 99 | $101.00 | 0.5% |
| 100 or more | $41.00 | 1.3% |
Sportingbet has opened a book on Labor’s two-party preferred vote share. The favourtite with this book is 53 to 54 per cent. Using Antony’s calculator, this equates to something like 82 to 87 seats.
| Percentage Labor TPP vote share | Odds | Probability | Implied seats (from AG) |
| Less than 48% | $26.00 | 2.8% | 63 or less |
| 48% to 49.99% | $13.00 | 5.6% | 63-71 |
| 50% to 51.99% | $4.40 | 16.4% | 71-76 |
| 52% to 52.99% | $3.75 | 19.2% | 76-82 |
| 53% to 53.99% | $2.50 | 28.9% | 82-87 |
| 54% to 55.99% | $3.50 | 20.6% | 87-96 |
| 56% or more | $11.00 | 6.6% | 96 or more |