Day 37 report
Yesterday, the Coalition released new policies on Tasmania, Tasmanian transport, urban water, and clean energy.
Labor released policies on obesity, a Medicare office in Belmont, an Innovative Regions Centre in Geelong, primary industry and Regional Policy.
Predictions: Graham Richardson has predicted that labor will win 20 seats (giving it 80 in total), with a six or seven per cent swing. (As an aside a six to seven seat swing would typically yield between 83 and 90 seats in total for Labor).
Polls: The Adelaide Advertiser has a poll in the seat of Boothby. The result was 52 to 48 in the Coalition’s favour. Boothby is on a margin of 5.4 per cent, so this result appears to be a significantly smaller swing to Rudd than elsewhere in the nation.
A Morgan poll of five WA marginal seats yields 50.5 to 49.5 in the Coalition’s favour.
And I missed this one yesterday. A McNair poll in North Sydney had Joe Hockey and Mike Bailey on 50-50 each.
Eligibility: The Coalition has raised questions about the eligibility to stand for Parliament of 13 Labor candidates. However, these claims are contested:
The Herald Sun last night confirmed the Liberal Party claims were based on scouring websites, and did not involve any checks or phone calls to the respective boards, authorities and agencies involved.
Advertising: The election electronic advertising ban kicks in from midnight tonight. But the ban on advertising does not cover direct mail, telephone campaigning or internet advertising. Expect the phone spam to begin.
Live election night site: James Young has a live election night site James also has a probability based election calculator on his site.