Day 35 report
Yesterday, the Coalition announced its tough on drugs policy.
Labor announced support for the world game, its commitment to lift school standards, and its plan to reduce violence against women and children.
Morgan: Morgan released a phone poll of 1670 voters on 15-17 November. The sample was weighted to marginal seats, with 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats. (I gather the other 128 seats were estimated with a sample of 645 voters) . The headline prediction was Labor on 55.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. The Coalition got 44.5 per cent. As can be seen from the next graph, this series has been pretty much a flat line during the election period. Note that I graphed how voters said they would vote, rather than the TPP figure based on preference flows in 2004, to maintain consistency with earlier Morgan phone polls.
I do not have enough data to confirm a house bias with the Morgan phone poll; nonetheless, it appears to track to the left of ACNielsen and Newspoll (see next graph). House bias effects should be taken into account when using a poll series to estimate the final national TPP outcome.
Other polls: In today’s SMH and Age, we have an ACNielsen poll for the seat of Wentworth. The headline result was 52-48 in Labor’s favour.
The SMH reported a Patterson poll of Eden-Monaro, which had Labor ahead 53 to 47 per cent.
Mumble has the latest demographic breakdown from ACNielsen.