Day 34 report
Yesterday, there were no new policies on Labor’s website.
The Coalition had no new policies listed on its website.
Betting market: Being a Sunday, it is time to look at the betting markets (perhaps for the last time). Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 30.6 per cent. This morning it was 20.9 per cent.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $4.75 | $1.19 | 20.0% |
| IASBet | $4.50 | $1.21 | 21.2% |
| SportingBet | $4.50 | $1.20 | 21.1% |
| SportsBet | $4.50 | $1.20 | 21.1% |
| SportsAcumen | $4.50 | $1.20 | 21.1% |
The betting market graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Galaxy marginal seat poll: Galaxy polled 4000 voters in twenty marginal seats between 11 and 15 November. The Poll Bludger has a graphic of the results here. If you extrapolate the marginal seat results to the state (not exactly kosher) and drop them into Antony’s calculator, it yields 83 seats for Labor. This result is more conservative than yesterday’s Newspoll of marginal seats, which gave us a prediction of 90 seats.
| Labor TPP vote share (%) | NSW | Vic | Qld | SA | WA |
| Galaxy | 53 | 49 | 51 | 51 | 50 |
| Newspoll | 53 | 53 | 53 | 56 | - |
ERMS poll: in today’s Sunday Examiner suggests Labor will pick-up all five Tasmanian seats.
Taverner poll of mortgage holders: The SMH and Age reported on a Taverner poll of mortgage payers which found them split 57-43 in Labor’s favour. Apparently, 34 per cent of households are mortgage payers. According to the papers, this result is a reversal of a similar poll before the 2004 election.
PM Rudd’s first steps: The SMH reported that the first steps of Prime Minister Rudd would be,
- Ratify the Kyoto Protocol. “We need to make sure we are around the negotiating table immediately … for the next round of commitments on reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.”
- Start immediately to negotiate with the states on reform of hospital practices. “That is of crucial importance - we’ve got $2.5billion on the table but we’ll need to frame a co-operative agreement around performance measures.”
- Begin the roll-out of the high-speed broadband network, along with connections to schools. In tandem, open up tenders for the $1 billion school computer program.
- “Hit the ground running” with the implementation of the $2.5 billion program to upgrade trades training centres in secondary schools. “I went back to C block [the technical faculty] at [his old school] Nambour High the other day - it hadn’t changed since I was there. It was like walking into a museum.”
- Begin negotiations with the Americans and Iraqis for the staged withdrawal by mid next year of Australian combat troops. “I have been very blunt with President Bush … I have a no-surprises policy when it comes to these things.”