Day 29 report
Yesterday was the Coalition’s campaign launch. The Coalition announced policies on a refundable tax rebate of 40 per cent for education expenses, alternative fuels, skills development for teachers of students with a disability, measures to help young people buy a home, improving financial literacy, child care and support for carers.
Labor announced new policies for a Cairns multi-sport stadium, helping local communities protect the Australian coastline, better health services in Port Stephens and the Hunter, free health and dental care for defence families, a Fair Work Australia office for Western Sydney, transport upgrades in Western NSW, and a Rockhampton to Gladstone water pipeline.
Polls: A poll of 300 people in the Northern Star found Labor just ahead in the NSW seat of Page (44 to 41 on the primary votes). Thanks to Isaac for the tip.
The NT News reported that Solomon is too close to call, based on unsighted internal Labor Party polling.
Predictions: Possums Pollytics predicts that on the current phone poll trends, Labor would win the election with 54.9 per cent oif the national two-party preferred vote. On Antony’s calculator, that would give Labor around 92 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.
Betting markets: The latest media release from SportingBet Australia: ‘Week four of the campaign has gone to Howard in the betting markets, despite the interest rate rise. Michael Sullivan, who is CEO of … Sportingbet Australia, says that 77% of bets had been for the Coalition during week four. “The first five days of the campaign went to Howard in a post-election-call boost, but since then the Coalition hasn’t been able to take a dollar. That is until this week,” he said. “It hasn’t been huge bets, but it’s been consistent for the Coalition”’
Graph of the day: Yesterday I was asked if the polls had ever previously been as flat and unmoving as they are at the moment. Answer: The Keating v Howard competition of 1995-1996 was the last time Federally.
