Oz Politics Blog

Graph of the day: The most recent data points from each of the opinion poll series are all well into Labor territory. The implied predictions range from 82 seats for Labor through to 134 seats for Labor. If you drop the bottom and top prediction, we have four of the six poll series in a tight band from 54 to 56 per cent for Labor, with an implied seats haul in the range from 87 to 96 seats.

Yesterday, Labor announced new policies on the arts and a Mirrabooka Multicultural Centre.

The Coalition made statements on veterans, and a new ABC television channel for children.

Tactics: According to Glenn Milne, ” Labor will use the last two weeks of the election to personally target Prime Minister John Howard. The change in tactics follows definitive internal research showing voters are already factoring Mr Howard out of the election because of his announcement that he’ll retire during the next term if he wins.”

Wentworth: News commissioned a galaxy poll of 800 voters in Malcolm Turnbull’s Sydney seat of Wentworth. The headline prediction was a 50-50 tie. Turnbull’s primary vote prediction was 44 per cent. His Labor opponent is on 36 per cent. The Greens are on 14 per cent.

SA focus groups: “A Sunday Mail, focus group interview with swinging Kingston voters on Thursday, found a fear of the unknown in the Government’s most marginal seat when it came to voting for Mr Rudd. Some of those interviewed by Galaxy Research accused Mr Rudd of coming across as a “little too polished” and “saying what people want to hear”, and they were sceptical about his ability to deliver.”

Betting markets: Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 27.9 per cent. This morning it was 30.2 per cent.

The betting market graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.