Day 20 report
We are half way! Yesterday was the 20th day in the election campaign. We have twenty days to go until the tally.
There were no new policy statements on the Coalition website.
As far as I can tell, there were no new policy statements on Labor’s website.
Vale Peter Andren: “Long serving federal independent MP Peter Andren has died after being diagnosed earlier this year with inoperable pancreatic cancer. He was 61″ (The Age).
Electorate polls: the Sunday Telegraph reported a Galaxy poll (N=800) of the Prime Minister’s seat of Bennelong. “Ms McKew [is] poised for victory with 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, compared to 48 per cent for Mr Howard.”
Sorry: According to the SMH, Peter Garrett said “I accept responsibility for cracking a joke at the wrong time and place,” and it was “probably a dumb thing to have done”. Garrett’s original sin was to joke with radio host Steve Price that once elected, Labor would ditch its conservative “me-too” policies and do what ever it liked.
Today, Glenn Milne argued that the Garrett gag could cost Labor the election. Apparently, “marginal-seat focus groups reveal that one of the key reasons voters are considering voting for Mr Rudd is his “me too” policy approach to the Federal Government and Prime Minister John Howard.” Milne also noted, “Mr Rudd yesterday said that he would not go down the road of wholesale policy changes if elected.”
Betting markets: Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 28.6 per cent. This morning it was 27.9 per cent.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $3.60 | $1.29 | 26.4% |
| IASBet | $3.30 | $1.36 | 29.2% |
| SportingBet | $3.30 | $1.32 | 28.6% |
| SportsBet | $3.60 | $1.28 | 26.2% |
| SportsAcumen | $3.25 | $1.34 | 29.2% |
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