Day 19 report
Yesterday was the 19th full day in the election campaign. There are twenty one days to until the election tally on the eveneing of 24 November 2007.
Labor made statements on the Northern Rivers growth corridor, health and education support for Melbourne’s western suburbs, Indigenous customary law and water desalination.
There were no new policy statements on the Coalition website.
Candidates: The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) released the list of candidates for the House of Representatives and the Senate. It was amusing to see Australia’s most prolific unsuccessful candidate — Marcus Aussie-Stone — up for election in Joe Hockey’s seat of North Sydney.
Political parties must lodge their above-the-line party voting tickets with the AEC by noon today if they wish to have a box above the line on the ballot paper. Once these tickets are published, I am sure there will be a number of Senate calculators on the net.
Morgan released poll results for last weekend. The headline prediction was 42.5 per cent for the Coalition and 57.5 per cent for Labor.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Electorate polls: The Herald Sun published an internal poll for Deakin in Victoria (N=314, Labor=55, Coalition=45, Swing=10).
The Australian, published a marginal seat poll for Queensland, NSW, Victoria and South Australia (N=3500) which Dennis Shanahan interpreted as suggesting “the extent of the Coalition’s losses will be between eight seats — which would allow it to easily retain government — and 22 seats, a six-seat win to Labor”. The analysis from Sol Lebovic is worth reading.
October aggregated: The Morgan poll was the last opinion poll for October. The weighted aggregation of all polls for October, with a combined sample in excess of 13,000 voters, yeilded a predicted vote share for Labor of 55.8 per cent. The Coalition had 44.2 per cent.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Poll trend: The next graph charts a weekly poll trend based on the average of Morgan (face-to-face). ACNielsen and Newspoll. The weekly averages are then smoothed with a 13-term Henderson moving average. The current poll trend is 44.4 per cent for the Coalition and 55.6 per cent for Labor.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.