Oz Politics Blog

This morning, there were two debutantes on the doubtful seat lists from the ABC and the AEC: Corangamite and Flynn. Both were previously listed as Labor gains. They are now classified as ALP ahead.

In Corangamite, the ordinary votes broke 51.6 to 48.4 in Labor’s favour. But the 4900 pre-poll votes to date went 58.5 to 41.5 in the Coalition’s favour, and the 4918 postal votes went 56.3 to 43.7 in the Coalition’s favour.

In Flynn, the reversal was more spectacular. The ordinary votes broke 52.25 to 47.75 in Labor’s favour. But some 6710 postal votes went 70.8 to 29.2 in the Coalition’s favour, while 3891 pre-poll votes went 58.5 to 41.5 in Labor’s favour.

Robertson has come off both lists. It is a Labor gain.

McEwan remains on the ABC doubtful seat list, but it is not on the AEC list. The Coalition is ahead in McEwan.

Solomon, which was only doubtful with the ABC yesterday, is now on both lists. Labor is ahead in Solomon.

The closest contest at the moment is Bowman, where Labor is on 50.01 per cent, and the Coalition is on 49.99 per cent.

The other doubtful seats are: Swan, Herbert, Dickson, Macarthur, and La Trobe. Labor is ahead in the first two, and the Coalition is ahead in the last three.

All up, the ABC computer has reduced its predicted seat outcome to 85 seats.

And in Bennelong, some more pre-poll and a few absent votes have been counted. They are breaking at around the 51-49 mark, so Maxine should be safe.

The ABC Computer now has Robertson on the doubtful list (previously a Labor gain) after the pre-poll votes went in the Coalition’s favour 53.3 to 46.7. It also has Solomon on the doubtful list after pre-poll votes broke 53.6 to 46.4 in the Coalition’s favour.

Of the doubtful seats on the ABC computer, the Coalition is now ahead in Bowman, Dickson, La Trobe, Macarthur, McEwan, and Swan. Labor is ahead in Herbert, Robertson and Solomon.

Whereas the ABC computer has nine doubtful seats, the AEC only has seven. The AEC is not listing McEwan (Coalition retain) or Solomon (Labor gain) as dountful. In McEwen, the pre-poll votes broke 55 to 45 in the Coalition’s favour.

The ABC Computer is back to predicting 86 seats for Labor, down from its Monday high of 88. It is possible that the Labor win might end up being as low as 83 seats.

Elsewhere

John Quiggan has some interesting observations on polls, pundits and punters.

Simon Jackman ponders ACNielsen’s performance this election.

Andrew Norton twists his tongue around the ideological future of the Liberal Party.

Yesterday saw some pre-poll votes counted.

The AEC now has the TPP result at 53.29 per cent in Labor’s favour. Antony’s computer now has the predicted outcome at 88 seats (up two from yesterday). The seats in doubt are: Bowman (Qld), Dickson (Qld), Herbert (Qld), La Trobe (Vic), Macarthur (NSW), McEwen (Vic), and Swan (WA). In all but Macarthur, Labor is ahead.

In Bennelong, Maxine is ahead by 2439 votes. She dropped some 50 votes when the first pre-poll votes were counted. My back of the envelope calculations suggest that Maxine would lose if Howard got something like more than 58 per cent of the absent, pre-poll and postal votes. In 2004, Howard got 57.6 per cent. If 2004 and the swing against Howard in booths offer any guidance, it will be close but Maxine should win.

According to the SMH …

Peter Costello today said he would not “would not seek nor accept” a nomination to be the new opposition leader.

He said he would stay in his seat of Higgins, in Victoria, and “mentor” young talent within the party.

Last night’s election ran largely as predicted. Australia has a new Government. Labor won, with an interim national two-party preferred vote share of 53.41 per cent.

There was a narrowing in the polls in the last week that appears to have carried through to the final result. I was predicting 6.7 per cent swing before the late polls last week suggested a narrowing; the result at the end of the night was 6.15 per cent. My guess of 88 seats for Labor was two up on the ABC’s predicted 86 seats at the end of counting last night.

The latest poll from Morgan (phone — 53.5 per cent) was the closest to picking the final result. Newspoll and Galaxy (at 52 per cent) were a little conservative. ACNielsen at 57 per cent had a bad hair day.

The ABC gave a fantastic election night coverage. Well done Antony!

Key government casualties include Mal Brough (Minister for Indigenous Affairs), and in all likelihood the Prime Minister, John Howard. The Special Minister of State, Gary Nairn, has lost his bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro.

Malcolm Turnbull won his seat of Wentworth.