Day 13 report
Yesterday was the thirteenth full day of the official election campaign. We have just under four weeks until the election.
Labor announced a policy to help renters fight climate change.
There were no new policy announcements on the Coalition website.
Polls: The Sunday Mail comissioned Galaxy to poll Wayne Swan’s relatively safe Labor seat of Lilley. Galaxy predicted that Swan would win the seat with 59 per cent of the primary vote. Liberal candidate Scott McConnell polled 32 per cent, the Greens’ Simon Kean-Hammerson 7 per cent and others 2 per cent. No sample size was given for the poll.
Simon Jackman has an interesting piece on polling methodology.
Betting markets: As Jason Koutsoukis noted, the betting markets have taken a turn against the Coalition in recent days. Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 42.7 per cent. This morning it was 28.6 per cent.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $3.40 | $1.32 | 28.0% |
| IASBet | $3.15 | $1.36 | 30.2% |
| SportingBet | $2.95 | $1.40 | 32.2% |
| SportsBet | $3.00 | $1.38 | 31.5% |
| SportsAcumen | $3.60 | $1.28 | 26.6% |
And if you spotted it, we have an arbitrage opportunity. If you bet $1000, placing $280 on the Coalition with SportsAcumen, and $720 on Labor with SportingBet, you would win a guaranteed $1008 (a net gain of $8). I suspect that by the time you read this, the arbitrage opportunity will have gone.
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
On the lighter side: Yesterday delivered what might become the most memorable line of the 2007 election campaign: “Our fear campaign is based on fact”.
And I would love to know what this has to do with an election campaign: Shadow Treasurer Wayne Swan giving tips on how to reduce your shopping bill. Nothing partisan. All perfectly sensible. It is just not much to do with an election.