Day 11 report
Yesterday was the eleventh full day in the Federal election campaign.
Labor issued media statements on broadband and helping volunteers with petrol costs.
The Coalition issued policy statements on rural health and transport in Perth
Statistics: The Possum looked at the relationship between the Reserve Bank cash rate and Labor’s primary and two-party preferred vote in the opinion polls since 1999. His (I assume Possum is a “he”) multiple regression models explained some 75% of Labor’s vote movement in the opinion polls over the period. The models predict that if interest rates rise by the 25 basis points anticipated by the markets, Labor can expect its primary vote to increase by about a percentage point in the opinion polls, and its two party preferred vote to do likewise.
The Possum’s other conclusion was that Kevin Rudd’s ascension to the Labor leadership was worth around eight percentage points in Labor’s primary vote in the opinion polls and three and a half percentage points in its two-party preferred vote (in comparison with Kim Beazley).
Betting markets: Yesterday, Sportingbet CEO Michael Sullivan said that almost all of the money taken since the Australian Bureau of Statistics CPI announcement had been for Labor. “We’ve taken almost $100,000 of bets in just 24 hours, since yesterday morning’s announcement of the inflation figures and 99% of that money has been for Labor,” he said. “That’s meant that Labor’s price has shortened again to $1.40 and the Coalition’s odds have drifted out to $2.95 from $2.60.”
Polls: Adelaide — 64-36 in Labor’s favour. The Poll Bludger has a good graphic of all the recent Advertiser polls.
GetUp commissioned a Galaxy Senate poll, which was reported in the SMH and the Brisbane Times — Labor: 33; Coalition: 38; Greens: 11.